Hi,
Regarding an inversion, my numbers have the 10 year treasury at 2.455 % while a 3 month treasury is at 2.46. Given rounding conventions, I could not declare an inversion with these numbers. So this is probably not the time to react.
I plan on looking harder at my recent historical data and will then give a better historical picture of the last inversion, which occurred in 2007, roughly 1 year before the market tanked big time. I will also take a look at Zweig's discussion, which I did not commit to memory 20 years ago -- Ha Ha. He gives some statistics on the inverted yield curve (IYC) and subsequent market activity.
Off the top of my head, given my experience with statistics, I would guess that the correlation between an IYC and a subsequent bear market is not 1.00. Not a giant leap of insight !
Meanwhile, because I move on a several-month timescale this development gives me no incentive to increase my holdings of stocks at this time.
Good luck.
Tex
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Posted by: mrweyl@hotmail.com
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