Thanks Tex. I can honestly assert my total unadulterated ignorance as it relates the many scientific models and other market analysis tools and charts I get from TSP Strategy. I'm thankful to know enough to make moves suggested by Sarah. You went to 100% G a few months ago due to Zweig model, I'm just glad (lucky) I went 100% S on Jan 7th.... Quantitive Tightening? What Thou Fancy? (WTF). When I retire in the next year or so, I will wallow in my ignorance by capitulating any ambition to comprehend what you and the other market geniuses know. I'm envious but happy. Call me what you want.
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On Sunday, March 17, 2019, 6:44 PM, mrweyl@hotmail.com [TSP_Strategy] <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
Fellow Board Members,On March 13, the negative effect of the Fed interest rate hike last September expired, pushing my version of the model back to neutral from a sell signal. As I said recently, I had added a negative contribution from what is currently called quantitative tightening (QT). That is what forced the Zweig model to a sell.The Fed Chairman indicated that quantitative tightening would continue at a progressively lower pace. The market interpreted this as a future positive along with a forecast pause in Discount/Federal Funds rate increases. As a result, the indexes moved higher in the first months of this year.While anything is possible, I have seen nothing that would raise the Zweig model to a buy signal in the near future. A move to a positive trend from the current neutral trend plus lower interest rates, along with continued Fed inaction on interest rates and a cessation of quantitative tightening would do it. However, no banks or Fed observers indicate an end to QT before September.Of note, the yield curve continues to flatten. An inverted yield curve could signal a significant market drop in the future - probably the distant future (say, up to a year).As part of managing my entire portfolio, I moved to a 100% G position a few months ago, given the Zweig model signals. Now, I am currently considering what to do, if anything, given that the neutral Zweig model argues for neither a big drop or a big move upward. Zweig's book normally stayed with a 100% non-stock position once a sell signal was given until a buy signal was given. That is an acceptable risk averse strategy.If I decide to use the neutral Zweig model status as the basis for a trading strategy or a mixed stock and G fund allocation, I will post my TSP actions on this board as they happen.Good luck,Tex
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Posted by: Ben Alexander <zbenj56@yahoo.com>
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