Thank you for the info Tex
Sent from Stan's iPhone
Fellow Board Members,On March 13, the negative effect of the Fed interest rate hike last September expired, pushing my version of the model back to neutral from a sell signal. As I said recently, I had added a negative contribution from what is currently called quantitative tightening (QT). That is what forced the Zweig model to a sell.The Fed Chairman indicated that quantitative tightening would continue at a progressively lower pace. The market interpreted this as a future positive along with a forecast pause in Discount/Federal Funds rate increases. As a result, the indexes moved higher in the first months of this year.While anything is possible, I have seen nothing that would raise the Zweig model to a buy signal in the near future. A move to a positive trend from the current neutral trend plus lower interest rates, along with continued Fed inaction on interest rates and a cessation of quantitative tightening would do it. However, no banks or Fed observers indicate an end to QT before September.Of note, the yield curve continues to flatten. An inverted yield curve could signal a significant market drop in the future - probably the distant future (say, up to a year).As part of managing my entire portfolio, I moved to a 100% G position a few months ago, given the Zweig model signals. Now, I am currently considering what to do, if anything, given that the neutral Zweig model argues for neither a big drop or a big move upward. Zweig's book normally stayed with a 100% non-stock position once a sell signal was given until a buy signal was given.. That is an acceptable risk averse strategy.If I decide to use the neutral Zweig model status as the basis for a trading strategy or a mixed stock and G fund allocation, I will post my TSP actions on this board as they happen.Good luck,Tex
__._,_.___
Posted by: Stan Kays <srkays@gmail.com>
| Reply via web post | • | Reply to sender | • | Reply to group | • | Start a New Topic | • | Messages in this topic (2) |
Have you tried the highest rated email app?
With 4.5 stars in iTunes, the Yahoo Mail app is the highest rated email app on the market. What are you waiting for? Now you can access all your inboxes (Gmail, Outlook, AOL and more) in one place. Never delete an email again with 1000GB of free cloud storage.
Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.
SPONSORED LINKS
.
__,_._,___
Anda baru saja membaca artikel yang berkategori dengan judul Re: [TSP_Strategy] Update on Zweig Model. Anda bisa bookmark halaman ini dengan URL https://1stleadershipworkshop.blogspot.com/2019/03/re-tspstrategy-update-on-zweig-model.html. Terima kasih!
Ditulis oleh:
Andriansyah -
Belum ada komentar untuk "Re: [TSP_Strategy] Update on Zweig Model"
Post a Comment