A negative yield curve has historically been reached 2-3 years before a U.S. recession is officially recognized. The signal has a lot of forecasting accuracy in calling recessions, but still, if history is any guide, perhaps we're looking at a 2021-2022 U.S. recession. Two years can be a long time in the markets. Also, recessions come in different flavors too, clearly 2008 was about as bad as recessions get. It's likely the next recession won't be quite so bad, simply as 2008 was so extreme.
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Posted by: sarah_oz@yahoo.com
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