Two years from now there will be a major political event (US elections) that may have a world-wide impact. And, a lot can happen leading up to it. Whether there is a change in the Administration or not, market reaction may appear that we are in a recession.
Of course, anything significant could have that impact at any time. I think the markets are looking for an excuse to sell off, but greed keeps the markets buoyant for now.
(Yes, my comments are pretty much worthless.)
On March 23, 2019 at 11:04 AM "sarah_oz@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy]" <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
A negative yield curve has historically been reached 2-3 years before a U.S. recession is officially recognized. The signal has a lot of forecasting accuracy in calling recessions, but still, if history is any guide, perhaps we're looking at a 2021-2022 U.S. recession. Two years can be a long time in the markets. Also, recessions come in different flavors too, clearly 2008 was about as bad as recessions get. It's likely the next recession won't be quite so bad, simply as 2008 was so extreme.
Posted by: WILLIAM ADAMS <william.d.adams@comcast.net>
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