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I would tend to agree.
I believe that the S&P should move to about 2290 (4.3% gain) before falling slightly, then continue up to 2450 (11.6% gain).
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Other Predictions for 2017
Bank of America, Savita Subramanian — Target: 2,300
"…2017 could be anything but normal. We see fat tails and a binary set of outcomes. Against the backdrop of elevated valuations, slow growth and limited scope for credit expansion, our target and the recent rally are reliant on policymakers' ability to deliver growth next year. Trump's comments on trade and GOP comments on deficits/spending could drive big market swings in the coming months. Risk-reward will be more important than absolute targets. "
Canaccord, Tony Dwyer — Target: 2,340
"…Despite the likelihood of a temporary pause in the upside given recent ramp, we remain buyers because: (1) our positive fundamental core thesis remains in place, (2) economic data and EPS continues to improve, and (3) our key tactical indicators suggest a favorable risk/reward environment…"
Citi, Tobias Levkovich — Target: 2,325
"Trumped up could trickle down (to EPS)…Tax cuts could be quite stimulative to S&P 500 EPS. If one assumes a 20% statutory tax rate with no deductions versus a current effective tax rate running at near 27%, that might add as much as $12 of 2017 EPS to Citi's current estimate of $129…A stronger US dollar is plausible if growth and inflation ensue, thereby limiting the earnings benefits. Higher rates from the Fed and possible "crowding out" plus inflation pushing bond yields upward are viewed as offsetting negatives especially if the dollar climbs and eats into earnings. Every 10% move in the greenback might shift EPS by around 2% on an annual basis and therefore must be tracked as well…"
Deutsche Bank, David Bianco — Target: 2,350
"S&P 500 likely to reach 2250 by the inauguration…we think the market is under appreciating the likely big boost to S&P EPS from a lower corporate tax rate and the boost to Bank profits from rising yields (and lower pension expense) and the much higher chance now of a long lasting economic expansion that rivals the 10 year US record. We're more confident now that the S&P will reach 2500 in 2018 before suffering its next bear market."
Goldman Sachs, David Kostin — Target: 2,200
"Steady but unspectacular profit growth will be a hallmark of 2017 earnings…Looking under the surface, we expect two issues will drive the earnings discussion next year: 1. The US economy will remain stuck in a slow secular growth regime…2. S&P 500 margins will increase slightly next year, but remain well below the peak."
JPMorgan, Dubravko Lakos-Bujas — Target: 2,300
"Expectations of decreased regulation, favorable tax reform, increased fiscal spending, and less congressional gridlock should drive stronger revenue growth and higher net income margins. Further, the removal of election uncertainty and some form of cash repatriation should result in increased investment activity. Also, investor equity exposure is not high given de-leveraging ahead of elections; this combined with reflation could help reverse flows from bonds into equities."
UBS, Julian Emanuel — Target 2,300; EPS: $127
"…Age alone does not end the Bull – a recession, catalyzed by rising rates or an exogenous shock, has begun shortly after each major Top of the past 25 years. And while Fed hikes "start the clock", neither valuation excesses nor signs of a recession are apparent. 2017 should see balance sheet strength, a return to earnings growth after a two year drought, and rising interest rates."
Posted by: sarah_oz@yahoo.com
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