Fellow Board Members,
Just a note to say that some of my indicators have returned to the situation early in the year when the stock market was at 6-month lows. However, this time we are near six-month highs, e.g. for the S&P (C Fund), and my several-month trend indicator is also pointing up in contrast to the earlier period. Over the last several years, my trend indicators have been the most reliable over a short time period (up to several months). So I am sticking with that.
However, a troubling development is the yield curve, e.g., the differential between 10-year government bond yields and those of the 3-month bills. Presently it has dropped to 1.38 % -- far from inverted but possibly indicating a lot of fear in the markets. This might be due to the upcoming British vote on the "Brexit." If the markets smell a return of the Fed to quantitative easing, I would expect stocks to go up big time -- probably won't happen.
As usual I am looking to do a lot of selling and as usual I have not found a sufficiently strong reason not to stick with stocks.
Hope that you are enjoying the summer. In my area we have had some breathtaking days, although lately perhaps too hot for many people. I claim to be good up to 105 degrees F, which is very rare here. That is good because I don't like to eat my words more than I already do.
Good luck,
Tex
Posted by: mrweyl@hotmail.com
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