My FWIW opinion I received from my investment advisor.......
1. Importantly, last night's 'leave' victory does not mean the UK is out of the European Union this morning – leaving the EU is a long-process that will require at least a two year negotiation period
2. In fact, yesterday's referendum was 'non-binding', though UK policy makers have pledged to follow the will of the people and follow through with the decision – Prime Minister David Cameron has offered his resignation, and a new leadership will be formed in the fall
3. Logistically, Brexit will not be a quick process – First, UK leaders must agree on a policy for exit, which may take many months to begin with, then they must officially invoke 'Article 50' which notifies the EU of their intent to leave – this kicks off a two year negotiation process (which as the ability to be extended by unanimous approval) to hash out the exact terms of the exit; we believe the EU exit would happen till 2019 at the earliest
4. It also likely the UK and EU will seek to enter into separate trade agreements to limit the impact of a UK exit – in fact, already this morning we have seen both Boris Johnson, a prominent UK politician supporting 'leave', and Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany, make public statements reiterating their commitment to maintaining strong relations between the UK and EU; such trade negotiations may run parallel to the UK exit agreement, and should such a process be drawn out, the UK may still remain a member of the EU for many years to come (several UK politicians have warned that it could take 'up to a decade' to complete the EU negotiations)
5. What does it all mean? In the near-term, the direct effects of BREXIT are likely to be limited, though the uncertainty it poses will clearly be an overhang to economies and markets both in the UK and out; further, with UK voters now having elected to leave the EU, markets are likely to consider the risk of further referendums down the road (eg Scottish independence, other EU members considering departures)
6. Importantly, this is a political crisis, not an economic or financial one – we continue to believe globally central banks will do what is necessary to attempt to limit the near-term financial impacts that Brexit poses, but the ultimate impacts of Brexit will hinge on politicians (particularly in the UK and EU) working together and sounding a constructive tone on what a post-Brexit world will look like
On Friday, June 24, 2016 11:47 AM, "David Raphael FireAxe39@aol.com [TSP_Strategy]" <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
So I'm a smart one and did the opposite a couple days ago,( didn't know about the brevity vote till to late) and woke up to this madness), for some reason my only options are to stay in the S or move to the G, what do you think is the better option?
David R
Sent from my iPhone
Sent from my iPhone
On Jun 24, 2016, at 8:03 AM, zmountin@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy] <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
I gambled and moved from S to F on Wednesday morning (jumped the gun just a bit) in anticipation of the vote. Feel good about the decision but now don't know how long to stay there. Seems the general consensus around here is to stay pat for a while. It'll be interesting to see how the markets react next week once this news has cycled through.
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Posted by: Kevin Kauffman <kevinlk1@yahoo.com>
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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.
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