Re: [TSPStrategy] Tsp and _not_ trading

Portfolio difference. S fund is tech top. Russell is heavier on health, with discretionary type on top (AMC, BJ's etc).



On 1/4/22 at 10:10 AM, JOHN HOLLIS via groups.io wrote:

From: "JOHN HOLLIS via groups.io" <John.hollis_oo4=yahoo.com@groups.io>
Date: January 4, 2022
To: "tspstrategy@groups.io" <tspstrategy@groups.io>,
"TSPStrategy@groups.io" <TSPStrategy@groups.io>
Cc: "winfield100=yahoo.com@groups.io" <winfield100=yahoo.com@groups.io>
Subject: Re: [TSPStrategy] Tsp and _not_ trading

Any idea why the Russel 2000 (small caps) would be up +1.8% while the DWCPF is down -0.50% at the same moment?  Is it that the latter has a lot of small-mid Tech companies (since the NASDAQ is the only other index that's down today)?

On Tuesday, January 4, 2022, 05:37:34 AM EST, winfield100 via groups.io <winfield100=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

i am not giving advice and only commenting on what i do in the markets after ~40+ years.

there are a lot of very smart people who do little other than stare at banks of computer screens and have programs that have run probably billions if not trillions of scenarios of "what if" and skim fractions of a cent, millions of times a day.

It's their job and they are far better at it than you or I, and can act in milliseconds.

i once saved 5.5 gallons of pennies over 5 years or so. a penny isn't much 

but 33,000 of them are $330.00, and difficult to get rid of, but still $330

every day i download all the data, for free, from tsp.gov, and keep a few graphs with +/- 2 standard deviation bands, as the moving average of the raw data seems to follow the envelop (by definition) but also seem to "hug" the upper or lower band during runs but also can move randomly.

The G fund to me seems like cash and inflation degrades the value of cash.

yes i am 100% in S fund, that is my personal decision in TSP.

If i have a winner, i leave it along.

diversication usually is "di-worse-ication", but TSP gives us few options but they look at it constantly, however the C fund is more or less the S&P 500, S fund the DWCPF, Dow Jones completion Index.

it takes a 10% win to just recover from a 7% loss.

don't be greedy

On Jan 3, 2022, at 7:10 PM, MD2018 via groups.io <rlkane.wc=verizon.net@groups.io> wrote:



Thanks, so are you long term for the S fund?

-----Original Message-----
From: winfield100 via groups.io <winfield100=yahoo.com@groups.io>
To: tspstrategy@groups.io <tspstrategy@groups.io>; TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io>
Sent: Mon, Jan 3, 2022 6:48 pm
Subject: Re: [TSPStrategy] Tsp and _not_ trading

over the last year the I fund is up 10% S fund up 15% though it was up 25% and C fund is up 30%

I'm very long term and didnt start until required to do RMD's

here are 2 graphs of last year

and a graph of last 11 years smoothed with 20 day moving average

On Monday, January 3, 2022, 11:08:42 AM EST, JOHN HOLLIS via groups.io <john.hollis_oo4=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

Thanks, but if the latest move to S "was predicated on the expected 'Santa Claus Rally'," that's a short term move/expectation that misfired (as you said).  It would be very useful to know if Sarah and others who made that move are staying "parked" in S for the longer-term in hopes that it will crawl out of that hole, or did she/anyone switch to another fund since Nov?  Thanks again.

On Monday, January 3, 2022, 09:32:08 AM EST, gmbetz via groups.io <gmbetz=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

To be clear.  TSP Strategy is not a short term trading group.  Not a swing trading or intermediate trading group.  The horizon is much further and can properly be classified as a long term trading group.  Sarah attempts to time the market once or twice a year.  The move to the S fund a few months ago was predicated on the expected 'Santa Claus Rally."    In most years that works, it didn't in 2021.   To avoid trading park your money in one of the funds and keep it there.  

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