Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: "Unemployment Rate Trend may signal end of the bull market"

 

thanks Sarah for this explanation. 

So then we are all in now due to currently seeing a bullish phase of the bear market.

But we will go to the sidelines if a bearish phase of this same bear market develops? 

And if this bullish phase of a bear market changes to an actual bull market then we are already where we need to be?

Is that sort of the situation? I am just trying to get this clear in my head.

On Mon, Feb 18, 2019 at 1:48 PM sarah_oz@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy] <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

 

If we are in a bear market, why did the group just recently move from 100%C to 100%S?

Sincerely confused...

Bull and bear markets are relative terms with respect to periods of time.

The DJIA has been in a bull market over the past 100 years.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart

However, it has been in a bear market over the past 6 months.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=djia&x=32&y=15&time=7&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=11%2F21%2F2016&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=3&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=15

Within the past 6 month bear market, it has seen a bullish phase over the past 2 months.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=djia&x=33&y=18&time=5&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=11%2F21%2F2016&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=3&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=15

Should a significant bearish phase again become evident, we may move to the sidelines.  However, should the current bullish phase continue unabated, the bear market will switch to bullish.

For our purposes, when the 50 day MA is above the 200 day MA, we generally describe the market's behavior as bullish.  When it is the reverse, we generally call the market bearish.  We are currently in that reverse phase.

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Posted by: a.bigel@gmail.com

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