We're had several discussions of this analysis in the past.
I would say that the main flaw has been the fact that the economy has been far more sluggish this year than anticipated. As a result, the Fed waited until Dec to raise interest rates. It was anticipated that rates would be raised sooner, which, I believe, would have favored the S fund for currency and other reasons.
FWIW, the S fund has provided the best returns over the past week, and this should continue thru January, assuming a "January Effect" occurs this year.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=dwcpf&x=44&y=14&time=3&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=8%2F23%2F2011&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=spx+efa&comp=spx+efa&ma=0&maval=50+200&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=15
Posted by: sarah_oz@yahoo.com
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