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[TSP_Strategy] Will Congress Avoid a Govt Shutdown on Friday?

 


Congress Will Race This Week to Avoid a Shutdown

December 7, 2015

Tis the sea­son—not for the hol­i­days, though those are here too, but for Con­gress to scramble to fin­ish a hand­ful of big-tick­et items be­fore head­ing home for the year.

So this week will find the two cham­bers ra­cing to agree on an om­ni­bus spend­ing bill be­fore Fri­day's fund­ing dead­line, and they'll also try to fin­ish ne­go­ti­ations on a massive pack­age of tax ex­ten­sions and com­plete work on re­con­cili­ation le­gis­la­tion and a cus­toms bill. Here's what else is on tap:

EDU­CA­TION

The Sen­ate ex­pects to pass a ma­jor edu­ca­tion re­form bill this week, sig­ni­fic­antly scal­ing back the fed­er­al gov­ern­ment's role in pub­lic schools after George W. Bush signed No Child Left Be­hind about 13 years ago. The bill—called the Every Stu­dent Suc­ceeds Act—keeps the an­nu­al, statewide read­ing and math tests in grades 3 through 8 and main­tains that states re­port the aca­dem­ic per­form­ance of low-in­come and minor­ity stu­dents. But it bars fed­er­al man­dates on teach­er eval­u­ations, al­lows the states great­er flex­ib­il­ity in how to as­sess and fix their schools, and au­thor­izes a preschool com­pet­it­ive grant pro­gram. 

EN­ERGY AND EN­VIR­ON­MENT

While gov­ern­ments gath­er in Par­is for the second week of a United Na­tions con­fer­ence to ham­mer out a glob­al agree­ment to fight cli­mate change, a dif­fer­ent sort of cli­mate de­bate will take place in the halls of the Sen­ate. Pres­id­en­tial con­tender and well-known cli­mate-change doubter Ted Cruz will hold a hear­ing in the Space, Sci­ence and Com­pet­it­ive­ness sub­com­mit­tee of the Com­merce Com­mit­tee ques­tion­ing the role of hu­mans in cli­mate change, with a wit­ness list full of sci­ent­ists who have ques­tioned the main­stream con­sensus on the is­sue.

The House Over­sight and Gov­ern­ment Re­form's In­teri­or sub­com­mit­tee holds a hear­ing Tues­day on a pro­posed In­teri­or De­part­ment rule pla­cing lim­its on coal pro­du­cers op­er­at­ing near streams. The stream-pro­tec­tion rule has been cri­ti­cized by the in­dustry for be­ing too re­strict­ive, but the ad­min­is­tra­tion says it will pro­tect drink­ing wa­ter and nearby land.

In­teri­or Sec­ret­ary Sally Jew­ell will testi­fy at a Wed­nes­day hear­ing in the House Nat­ur­al Re­sources Com­mit­tee about her agency's role in the Au­gust spill of min­ing waste in Col­or­ado, which was caused by an EPA-backed team.

On Fri­day, the Se­cur­it­ies and Ex­change Com­mis­sion will un­veil draft rules that would force oil and min­ing com­pan­ies to dis­close pay­ments to for­eign gov­ern­ments for pro­jects in their coun­tries. A fed­er­al court shot down an earli­er ver­sion in 2013, and now the big ques­tion is wheth­er the re­vised ver­sion will provide ex­emp­tions (or loop­holes, de­pend­ing who you ask) that power­ful oil com­pan­ies such as Ex­xon and Shell have lob­bied for.

The long-delayed reg­u­la­tion is re­quired un­der the 2010 Dodd-Frank fin­an­cial over­haul law. It's aimed at in­creas­ing trans­par­ency in or­der to com­bat the "re­source curse"—the cor­rup­tion, con­flict, and poverty that of­ten af­flict en­ergy-rich na­tions in Africa and else­where. The SEC, which has slow-walked the rule, has prom­ised a fed­er­al judge that it would fi­nal­ize the reg­u­la­tion by June of 2016.

HEALTH

Con­gress will con­tin­ue work­ing on a tax-ex­tenders pack­age deal this week, but it's look­ing in­creas­ingly un­likely that a delay of Obama­care's Ca­dillac tax, which is levied on pricey em­ploy­er-sponsored health in­sur­ance plans, will be in­cluded.

Dur­ing Thursday's nearly sev­en-hour vote-a-rama on re­con­cili­ation le­gis­la­tion, an amend­ment re­peal­ing the Ca­dillac passed the up­per cham­ber 90-10. Though the ma­jor­ity of sen­at­ors are now on re­cord sup­port­ing a re­peal, that doesn't mean a delay of the tax—which starts in 2018—will be in the pack­age. (The two cham­bers still have to agree on a fi­nal ver­sion of the re­con­cili­ation bill be­fore it heads to Pres­id­ent Obama's desk for a prom­ised veto.)

"I don't think the Ca­dillac tax is go­ing to be part of any of this end-of-the-year ne­go­ti­ation. I think, frankly, it's pretty good lever­age to do some more sys­tem­ic re­forms for the Af­ford­able Care Act," Ma­jor­ity Whip John Cornyn told re­port­ers last week. "It's too valu­able to be trad­ing off for oth­er smal­ler, less valu­able items here at the end of the year."

In ad­di­tion, the Sen­ate Health, Edu­ca­tion, Labor, and Pen­sions Com­mit­tee will hold a hear­ing Tues­day on the na­tion's opioid epi­dem­ic, the first time that the pan­el will con­vene to dis­cuss the top­ic this Con­gress. From 1999 to 2013, pre­scrip­tion-paink­iller-re­lated deaths quad­rupled. Sim­il­arly, heroin-re­lated-over­dose deaths nearly quad­rupled from 2002 to 2013.

Also Tues­day, the House En­ergy and Com­merce Over­sight and In­vest­ig­a­tions Sub­com­mit­tee will hold its second hear­ing in a two-part series check­ing up on the Af­ford­able Care Act's state in­sur­ance mar­ket­places. Andy Slavitt, the Cen­ters for Medi­care and Medi­caid Ser­vices act­ing ad­min­is­trat­or, is sched­uled to testi­fy.

On Wed­nes­day, the House En­ergy and Com­merce Health Sub­com­mit­tee will hold a hear­ing titled, "Ex­amin­ing Le­gis­la­tion to Im­prove Health Care and Treat­ment."

TECH­NO­LOGY

FBI Dir­ect­or James Comey will testi­fy Wed­nes­day be­fore the Sen­ate Ju­di­ciary Com­mit­tee. The over­sight hear­ing will likely fo­cus on an ar­ray of is­sues, in­clud­ing the FBI's coun­terter­ror­ism ef­forts, sur­veil­lance cap­ab­il­it­ies, and the de­bate over en­cryp­tion tech­no­logy. Comey has pre­vi­ously warned that en­cryp­ted com­mu­nic­a­tions could al­low ter­ror­ists to "go dark" from U.S. sur­veil­lance. 

The House Over­sight Com­mit­tee will hold a hear­ing on Wed­nes­day on on­line gambling. The pan­el's chair­man, Rep. Jason Chaf­fetz, a Utah Re­pub­lic­an, has been a lead­ing crit­ic of on­line gambling, and the hear­ing's title "A Casino in Every Smart­phone—Law En­force­ment Im­plic­a­tions" sug­gests a hard­line ap­proach to the is­sue. While the Justice De­part­ment has al­lowed states to reg­u­late on­line gambling in their own bor­ders, Chaf­fetz has been push­ing for a na­tion­al ban. 

The Sen­ate Com­merce Com­mit­tee will vote Wed­nes­day on Jes­sica Rosen­wor­cel's nom­in­a­tion to serve an­oth­er term as a mem­ber of the Fed­er­al Com­mu­nic­a­tions Com­mis­sion. The com­mit­tee is also sched­uled to con­sider a bill that would re­quire the FCC to de­pos­it rev­en­ue from air­wave auc­tions in­to the fed­er­al treas­ury. 

WHITE HOUSE

After two weeks in a row of trips over­seas, Obama has a re­l­at­ively light sched­ule in Wash­ing­ton this week. He star­ted off his week with re­marks at the Kennedy Cen­ter Hon­ors re­cep­tion Sunday at the White House be­fore his prime-time ad­dress to the na­tion on com­batting ter­ror­ism. On Monday, he'll have meet­ings at the White House, and on Tues­day will at­tend a Demo­crat­ic Na­tion­al Com­mit­tee roundtable. 

On Wed­nes­day, he'll de­liv­er re­marks at an an­niversary event for the 13th Amend­ment, which form­ally ab­ol­ished slavery and was rat­i­fied by the states on Dec. 6, 1865. Later that day, he'll meet with Is­raeli Pres­id­ent Re­uven Rivlin, and host Ha­nukkah re­cep­tions at the White House. He'll at­tend more meet­ings at the White House on Thursday and Fri­day.

Ben GemanAlex RogersRachel RoubeinBrendan Sasso and Rebecca Nelson contributed to this article.


December 7, 2015

Congress Will Race This Week to Avoid a Shutdown


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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

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