[TSP_Strategy] January Effect: Re: TSP Share Prices and YTD Returns

 

Happy New Year,

I updated my guide on the January effect for 2016.  You can read it in full at https://tspsmart.com/The-January-Effect.

Depending on how you define it, the effect has faded away the last decade and most of the effect occurred during the pre-election years since 1950 (2016 will be an election year).

Of note, January 2014 and 2015 were down 1.9% and 1.8% respectfully for the TSP S fund (non-SP500 small caps) and down 3.5% and 3.0% respectfully for the TSP C fund (SP500).  So while you could say the small caps outperformed the large caps, they were still down the last two years.   The markets did bounce back in both Februarys.

January 2012 and 2013 were up significantly, but the markets were under the spell of QE back then.  Now monetary policy is tightening, credit spreads are widening, market internals have not recovered since July, we're in a earning recession, and the Santa did not Rally.  I define this as a hostile investing environment. 

Hopefully Santa was just late,

Michael

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Posted by: michaelhbond@yahoo.com

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