I believe that neither scenario is likely in 2016.
Rates would only be reduced if we reentered a major recession. In that situation, the rate reduction would be the least of the actions being taken.
Similarly, given the fact that most of the world is currently in recession and our economy is chugging along at a very slow pace, I would doubt that there will be any significant increase in rates in 2016. Rates would only be raised to that extent if we had a major boost in our economy, which I also don't see since the world's recession is a contributing factor.
Very hard to imagine they will raise rates in an election year. More likely, now that they bumped them up, they have room to drop them 0.25 next September to get a stimulation and perhaps pick up some votes.
Rates would only be reduced if we reentered a major recession. In that situation, the rate reduction would be the least of the actions being taken.
Similarly, given the fact that most of the world is currently in recession and our economy is chugging along at a very slow pace, I would doubt that there will be any significant increase in rates in 2016. Rates would only be raised to that extent if we had a major boost in our economy, which I also don't see since the world's recession is a contributing factor.
Very hard to imagine they will raise rates in an election year. More likely, now that they bumped them up, they have room to drop them 0.25 next September to get a stimulation and perhaps pick up some votes.
Art
I agree that the Fed will be slow to raise interest rates, however I do believe that they will likely raise them between 0.5% and 1.0% through 2016. A lot will depend not only on the US economy but also Europe and China and the rest of the world to a lesser extent.
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Posted by: sarah_oz@yahoo.com
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