I don't quite understand or follow the Zweig model, but have both been in and followed the markets since 1981
I remember the "crash" of fall 1983, a tiny tiny blip on the long term graphs.
I'm personally and have been following renewables for the last 30+ years, few good ones few bad ones.
IF you follow renewables, you can see that the world is running out of easy fossil fuels, and people love breathing clean air, drinking clean water, etc.
If you look closer, renewables made up perhaps 01% of the _worlds_ energy in 2001, perhaps ~2% ten years later in 2011 and just crossed 10% in 2021 after after 10 years, for a total of ~2,800 TERAWATT hours, the world using 27,000+ terawatt hours
If you look at growth rates of both wind and solar, the major renewables the rate was astounding
Solar was growing at 54.9% _per_ year from 2011 to 2020, slowing to only 23.5% in 2020
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If you extrapolate out, by 2035 you get ~30,000 terawatt hours and by 2041 you ger 60,000 terawatt hours,
The upshot is. like it or not, the planet is transitioning from fossil fuels to electricity everywhere, from renewables, mainly wind & solar (free fuel)(my electric bill for my 100% electric house and electric car is $21.69/month) and installing massive megawatt and soon gigawatt battery banks and virtual power plants dotted everywhere, from centralized to decentralized
however, this isn't TSP related, but retirement related,
cheers
On Sunday, May 8, 2022, 05:03:59 PM EDT, Locutusoftexas <mrweyl@hotmail.com> wrote:
FWIW, the Zweig Model is now an outright sell for the first time since at least the financial crisis of 2008-9.
None of the major elements are likely to move from negative to positive this year. A short-term up trend could take it into neutral territory. I am expecting consumer installment debt to cross the threshold to become negative, in which case the Zweig model could achieve the minimum possible reading (0 points) for the first time this century.
Of course, Zweig is dead and traders now gamble on when the major elements will change in a positive or negative direction before the change actually happens. This happened in late 2018, when the time to buy was at the point that the Fed announced that it would not raise the federal funds rate further, instead of the point at which Zweig's negative points expired several months later and before it started cutting rates in August, 2019.
Either way, this is a true milestone. On the other hand, no one knows whether the stock indexes will continue to trend downward or for how long.
I believe that this is just noise for someone who expects to live for another 20 years, even after retirement. Statistically, for such a person, trading is not a winning strategy. Rather, overwhelming odds support "buying and holding stocks (no TSP withdrawals or loans)" as the winning strategy. That is one of the few free lunches.
Maybe there are actual historical exceptions to the advisability of the "twenty-year buy and hold stocks" strategy of which I am unaware, in which case I would stand corrected.
Good luck,
Tex
None of the major elements are likely to move from negative to positive this year. A short-term up trend could take it into neutral territory. I am expecting consumer installment debt to cross the threshold to become negative, in which case the Zweig model could achieve the minimum possible reading (0 points) for the first time this century.
Of course, Zweig is dead and traders now gamble on when the major elements will change in a positive or negative direction before the change actually happens. This happened in late 2018, when the time to buy was at the point that the Fed announced that it would not raise the federal funds rate further, instead of the point at which Zweig's negative points expired several months later and before it started cutting rates in August, 2019.
Either way, this is a true milestone. On the other hand, no one knows whether the stock indexes will continue to trend downward or for how long.
I believe that this is just noise for someone who expects to live for another 20 years, even after retirement. Statistically, for such a person, trading is not a winning strategy. Rather, overwhelming odds support "buying and holding stocks (no TSP withdrawals or loans)" as the winning strategy. That is one of the few free lunches.
Maybe there are actual historical exceptions to the advisability of the "twenty-year buy and hold stocks" strategy of which I am unaware, in which case I would stand corrected.
Good luck,
Tex
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