Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

I fell for that Nov call as well. In hind sight it was a bad call but at the time it did seem a reasonable call. Almost all seasonal investment strategies show November and December as positive months. Actually C-Fund hit an all-time high in Dec. And there was a short Santa Clause rally. Probably the bad call was to not exit in January. I too staid in (usually I step back in January) too long and then the bottom fell out so fast most everyone was caught. 

If you are long term we have seen in all of these corrections that they eventually bounce back and recover but it might be a year or two. Political policies change, elections matter,  hopefully they get inflation under control

If you can't stomach the fall (and the worse may be yet to come, as we still have summer to go, October is a month for financial disasters, etc), then you can try to sell the short rallies, buy the dip, and so forth until you can get some breathing room. But that's hard to do.  

Richard

On May 19, 2022, at 2:00 PM, JOHN HOLLIS via groups.io <John.hollis_oo4=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:



So I've only been in this group less than two years and was intrigued by the many longtime members who swore by Sarah's great market insight and solid TSP track record over the years.  Recently someone here stated that they really missed the in-depth analysis she shared that was the basis for whatever fund calls she ever made.  Again, being relatively new to this group I never benefited from those earlier posts of hers, but when she made the call to go to the S fund in November 2021, I saw so many of her longtime followers replying with gratitude.  What stunned me was the LACK OF ANALYSIS that came with that last post in Nov.  In retrospect, the brief rationale she gave for going to S didn't make any sense at all and certainly didn't constitute in-depth analysis.  I'm paraphrasing here but it was something like "there hasn't been a correction all year, so there shouldn't be one for the remainder of the year".  Maybe she was banking on a "santa claus rally", but the slow and steady crash started 2 or 3 weeks after she made that call.  I too hope Sarah is OK and would like to know what happened to her.  Meanwhile I can't help but speculate that, because that November post lacked any sensible analysis, maybe her account was hacked around the same time she fell off the grid. Sounds crazy, I know!

Regards,

John H

On Tuesday, March 22, 2022, 09:31:51 AM EDT, TK Ham <snpperhd@gmail.com> wrote:

So I take by the lack of recent discussion this group is no more?

--
John

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