Re: [TSPStrategy] Zweig Model

Tex,

Thank you very much for this information.  May I ask, are you still in the C or S fund or did you move to the G fund?  

Thank you,

Mary


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On Sunday, May 8, 2022, 5:04 PM, Locutusoftexas <mrweyl@hotmail.com> wrote:

FWIW, the Zweig Model is now an outright sell for the first time since at least the financial crisis of 2008-9.

None of the major elements are likely to move from negative to positive this year. A short-term up trend could take it into neutral territory. I am expecting consumer installment debt to cross the threshold to become negative, in which case the Zweig model could achieve the minimum possible reading (0 points) for the first time this century.

Of course, Zweig is dead and traders now gamble on when the major elements will change in a positive or negative direction before the change actually happens. This happened in late 2018, when the time to buy was at the point that the Fed announced that it would not raise the federal funds rate further, instead of the point at which Zweig's negative points expired several months later and before it started cutting rates in August, 2019.

Either way, this is a true milestone. On the other hand, no one knows whether the stock indexes will continue to trend downward or for how long.

I believe that this is just noise for someone who expects to live for another 20 years, even after retirement. Statistically, for such a person, trading is not a winning strategy. Rather, overwhelming odds support "buying and holding stocks (no TSP withdrawals or loans)" as the winning strategy. That is one of the few free lunches.

Maybe there are actual historical exceptions to the advisability of the "twenty-year buy and hold stocks" strategy of which I am unaware, in which case I would stand corrected.

Good luck,
Tex

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