First of all, did I make that first post publicly? How embarrassing, that was not my intention.
Regarding the three systems, I'd say that they have increasing levels of risk and complexity. Most investors are buy and hold types, so it's already a big leap to put some or all of their investments into a monthly seasonal strategy (which is what the Basic strategy is, it makes nine IFTs per year, and is pretty simple to understand). The Enhanced system uses daily data (back to 12/31/2003) to further tweak the moves, and adds a "lunar" component that even I as the owner have a hard time understanding. For one move in January, then during the slower summer trading months it follows the phases of the moon. Don't ask me to understand it, but in most years it significantly improves performance by several percent. The last strategy attempts to time bull market tops and bear market bottoms with fairly simple timing tools, but what seems fairly simple to me will be confusing to most people. So I leave it to the purchaser to decide which system they want to try, and how much of their portfolio to try it with. One big thing that sets my site apart I think is that I'm not selling subscriptions. Instead I provide the spreadsheet and Manual and (unless I get too busy, I do still have a full-time job as well) I'll answer questions. The spreadsheet currently has all the future IFTs out through 2022, which works out to what I think is a very modest cost. I'm not looking to make a fortune off this, just a fun retirement hobby with perhaps a bit of supplemental income. If the system continues to work as well as it has (or even half as good for that matter) then my TSP and other income is all I need.
Getting back to your question, I'm following the bull/bear system, which has been on a "buy" (and therefore follows the Enhanced system IFTs) since late 2008. For purchasers, I don't recommend a particular system and nobody has asked yet, but I'm assuming most would follow the Enhanced system. When the bull/bear system finally triggers a sell signal, I'm contemplating sending out an email to all purchasers of that fact just for their info (no cost for that, again, I'm not a subscription service and don't want to be), since it's not super easy to figure out on your own. The ensuing buy signal will be even harder to follow (it just uses a monthly charting method with a couple criteria). It worked for the bottom of the dot-com and the last bear markets, but there's no way to know if it will work a third time whenever the next bear market comes along. As an aside, I've finished the first version of an ETF version of the system, and if one was using ETFs outside of the TSP, and was brave enough to use the ETF "SH" to short the S&P 500 during the time period my system was on a bear signal in 2007-08, then the 12-year CAGR using ETFs from 2004-15 was a ridiculous 27.89%. So that info helped me to develop my own personal plan for retirement, which will be to stick with the TSP, and use the monthly withdrawal option, and for whatever funds withdrawn that don't get spent I'll invest about half of it using my "Bull/Bear" system but with ETFs, and the other half I'll shovel into dividend paying stocks.
Long-winded answer, hope that helps, and my apologies for apparently making what I thought was an email just to you a public post.
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Posted by: srbwsu82@yahoo.com
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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.
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