(Note: Understand that Dow 20,000 is only 1% above where we are now. 21,000 is only 6% above where we are now.
My expectation for the Dow is 21300 or about 8% above where we are now...)
Stock market's velocity after Trump has Wall Street talking Dow 20,000—and beyond
Published: Dec 10, 2016
Do I hear 21,000 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average?
The Dow is racing to 20,000 on Trump rally euphoria.
Do I hear 20,000? 21,000? That's the subject Wall Street investors are starting to consider after postelection ebullience has stretched equity markets deeper into the record books since Nov. 8.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.72% registered back-to-back-to-back record closes Friday — it has scored 14 record finishes since Donald Trump's election. The blue-chip gauge, as of Friday, was less than 250 points away from hitting the psychologically significant level of 20,000. Other stock benchmarks, including the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +0.50% and Russell 2000 index RUT, +0.12% finished at all-time highs Friday. Assuming that the indexes continue to lurch forward into the next week or two, that puts the gauge on pace to log the fastest 1,000-point rally since the Dow moved from 10,000 to 11,000 in from March 29, 1999, to May 3, 1999 — a 24-day trading day span, according to Dow Jones data.
The Dow closed above 19,000 on Nov. 22 and took 483 trading days to span the 1,000-point bridge.
| Trading sessions between 1000-point milestones | Dow's 1000-point milestone | Date of first close above 1000-milestone |
| 24 | 11,000 | 5/3/1999 |
| 59 | 14,000 | 7/19/2007 |
| 85 | 7,000 | 2/13/1997 |
| 105 | 8,000 | 7/16/1997 |
| 108 | 18,000 | 12/4/2014 |
| 127 | 13,000 | 4/25/2007 |
| 139 | 16,000 | 11/21/2013 |
| 153 | 17,000 | 7/3/2014 |
| 182 | 9,000 | 4/6/1998 |
| 189 | 5,000 | 11/21/1995 |
| 226 | 6,000 | 10/14/1996 |
| 246 | 10,000 | 3/29/1999 |
| 483 | 19,000 | 11/22/2016 |
| 975 | 4,000 | 2/23/1995 |
| 1,080 | 3,000 | 4/17/1991 |
| 1,460 | 15,000 | 5/7/2013 |
| 1,879 | 12,000 | 10/19/2006 |
| 3,573 | 2,000 | 1/08/1987 |
| 21,652 | 1,000 | 11/14/1972 |
The broad-based rally has been supported by the expectation that Trump will unleash a raft of pro-business policies, including a roll back of regulations, tax cuts and fiscal spending. Signs that the market is already on a solid economic footing relative to other economies across the globe and comparatively better quarterly results from U.S. corporations isn't hurting.
Investors appear to be buying in to those prospects, which are far from a reality. Right now, however, hope trumps fear.
On Friday, a gauge of confidence in the economy, the University of Michigan's consumer-sentiment gauge, surged in early December by 4.5% to 98.0, one-tenth of a percent from a cycle high touched in 2015, which was the highest since 2004.
Of course, there are a plethora of signs that the market is getting overheated. Wall Street's fear gauge, the CBOE Volatility Index VIX, -7.04% a measure of the market's expectation of volatility, is hovering around 12, a level that suggests investors may be growing complacent and are ill-prepared for a shock to the system. Levels above 12 tend to imply the expectation for even more volatility. At levels above 20, watch out!
And some argue that on a rolling basis, stocks are getting pricey and are due for a reversal.
The CAPE ratio, created by Nobel laureate economist Robert Shiller, compares stock prices with earnings over the past 10 years. It is showing that the S&P 500, which closed at a record Friday, is trading around 28 times.
By that measure, the stock market is now flashing a bright red warning sign, implying that a crash may be imminent in the broad-market S&P 500 index SPX, +0.59%
But even Shiller, who appeared on CNBC on Thursday to discuss his CAPE ratio, said this metric may not be able to account for the euphoria Trump has sparked. He views the real estate mogul as an unprecedented candidate whose potential policy impact on businesses could elude models.
"We just got a new president who wants to cut corporate-profit taxes and he wants to ease regulations. My own indicators are a little bit less effective in this environment," Shiller said.
Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve's meeting Dec. 13-14 could be the impetus that drives the market to its next milestone, some market players speculate. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates for the first time since last year, and it could provide clues about the pace of further hikes and the impact of the Trump election win thus far.
Are milestones for stocks important beyond their psychology? Some think they aren't.
"Ultimately, Dow 20,000 is just another big round number," said John Canally, Chief Economic Strategist for LPL Financial. "Over the long run stock prices are driving by earnings of the companies in the stock market. If the economy is sound, if the Fed is doing its job and the politicians don't get in the way, corporate earnings should matter more to investors than 'the big round numbers.'"
So, is too early to break out the champagne?
For those who are investing in government bonds, which have seen a precipitous spike, not so much. Yields for the 10-year Treasury note http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx were at 2.47% on Friday from 1.4% in July. Bond prices and yields move inversely. Bonds, which are considered safe assets, have been nose diving since risk appetite picked up.
Posted by: sarah_oz@yahoo.com
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