Re: [TSPStrategy] change of asset allocation

Good points Richard. Calling a bottom is just as much a crapshoot as going back in now.  As to your point about external things (black swans, etc) causing markets to tank, I wonder how many more cyber attacks like Friday's the economy and the market can tolerate. This may be an interesting week.

John

On May 7, 2021, at 10:42 PM, MD2018 via groups.io <rlkane.wc=verizon.net@groups.io> wrote:

Not sure about Sara, I've following her off and on since back in the time when she was part of TSP Center. She was much more outspoken at that site. However I can tell that she does stick to her guns and when she went into S years ago she stayed firm while stimulus and low interest rates were in affect by the Fed. I am not sure what her motivations are currently since stimulus was continued and interest rates are at zero. However it may just be in the long term that the market just may not have that much more room to go and if anything external happens to cause the market to tank what other tools does the fed have in the tool box at this point? So I can see the wisdom in playing it safe for awhile. I've more than once bought into the market when it was 10% down only to absorb another 10-20% down and had to wait it out. 

Richard

On May 7, 2021, at 8:41 PM, JOHN HOLLIS via groups.io <John.hollis_oo4=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

That sounds very reasonable. I wonder what Sara is doing/thinking. Since she hasn't provided any relevant updates since December, I first hope she's ok, and second, wonder if she is sticking by her original recommendation to stay in G because things are too volatile and not as they may seem.

On May 7, 2021, at 7:45 PM, MD2018 via groups.io <rlkane.wc=verizon.net@groups.io> wrote:



It really depends on your retirement time horizons and risk tolerance. If you have plenty of time before retirement, say 10 years or more it's not really that big of a risk. If the market tanks and your in it then wait it out and it will recover. And if it does tank you know the politicians will just borrow more money to add more stimulus. But if you need the money soon then your risk is much higher. I would bet it goes higher eventually even it it takes a short term correction in the near future. I'm retired but do not need by TSP yet but am only 30% in the equities, 20% bonds, and 50% G. I'm satisfied making a little bit with not huge risk based on my risk tolerance. 

-----Original Message-----
From: JOHN HOLLIS via groups.io <John.hollis_oo4=yahoo.com@groups.io>
To: TSPStrategy@groups.io
Sent: Fri, May 7, 2021 6:52 pm
Subject: Re: [TSPStrategy] change of asset allocation

Honestly, I don't know what to expect. All I know is corrections are normal occurrences and we haven't had one in a while. The October drop was the closest we came to one, but it didn't qualify.  Just saying I'll wait for the one that should come sooner or later this year.  I'm not the youngest anymore and have been burned before by jumping in when all systems seemed to say go and the rocket suddenly fizzled. Good luck!

On May 7, 2021, at 3:53 PM, Mark Morrison <mark3m@swbell.net> wrote:

@Hollis, A correction is 10% or more pullback. Do you expect a correction anytime in the near future with a stimulated and recovering economy?

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