Hi,
Sorry that I have been busy with other things this year. However,I am replying to the table of March 19. A Super Model value of 6 points or more is a buy. A value of 5 points is neutral and therefore not a buy. A value of 3 or lower is a sell.
Admittedly, I do not use the 4% technical model. I did not use the Zweig Model seriously until I developed a technical indicator in the last several years that I could verify and trust. However it is a several-month trend, which is generally longer-term than the Zweig 4% indicator.
In addition, quantitative tightening is still in operation and is not due to cease until near the end of the year, as I remember. This has the effect of lowering Zweig's Fed indicator by 1 point. The monetary model nevertheless remains at 1 point.
With my technical indicator, the Super Model fell to 3 points in October of 2018 and has not yet risen to 6 points. So the Zweig Model is still technically on a sell signal.
Zweig (see P. 106 of the first edition, 1986) uses the Super Model as a binary indicator: 100% invested with a buy rating and 0% invested on a sell rating. So a 65% invested position is entirely a modification of the particular investor.
So far my technical indicator has stubbornly remained at neutral since March and so gives a Zweig trend indicator that remains as a sell.
As usual, people develop their own variations on a particular investing method.
Note also that over my pre-retirement lifetime, I was always close to 100% invested in stocks. Actually I am still invested around 50% in stocks. However, as a retiree, I have forced myself to be risk averse, and moved all of my TSP into the G fund during 2018. The Zweig Super Model Sell in October therefore kept me from trading with the TSP since then.
Hope that this helps. Again, Zweig certainly allowed for the user to modify his rules for applying the model.
Good luck,
Tex
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Posted by: mrweyl@hotmail.com
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