Fellow Board Members,
I am giving my trend indicator, which is neutral, one "Super Model" point. As the decrease in the major indexes has been less than 4%, Zweig's original model would probably maintain this at 2.
The Fed rate cut plus the end of quantitatitve tightening contributes 4 Super Model Points. The prime rate has decreased in tandem, giving another 2 SM Points. The consumer installment debt indicator remains at 2 points.
So we have a total of 8-10 SM points, depending on the particular trend indicator and interpretation. This is a strong buy signal, representing a rather sudden switch from a sell signal that has existed for several months.
Note that the Zweig model has not served me well over the last year as I put my TSP in the G fund while the stock indexes went up another 10%. Furthermore, the current Fed rate cut was telegraphed to and discounted by the markets over the last several months.
Here is what I am doing, given that I am retired and, as a matter of principle, am trying to force myself not to overstay my welcome in the stock markets. Further I am a contrarian and do not like being in stocks at 10-year highs. (Zweig was very risk averse but was more of a trader rather than a contrarian. So he had no problem with being in stocks at a market high. However, if he even got a whiff of a top, he was out.) So, because TSP limits transfers to or from the non-G funds to 2 per month, because of historical performance during August and September, and because chaos abounds in the stock markets as a result of the tariff announcement and fed press conference, I am going to wait for further net downside in the stock markets before moving to the stock funds.
I could easily be wrong in my strategy, as I have been over the last year. So I suggest that people ignore this noise and maintain their preferred long-term asset allocation with periodic adjustments according to their risk tolerance. Alternatively, for the more venturesome, monitor Sarah, who has traded the market masterfully.
Just FYI as promised,
Tex
__._,_.___
Posted by: mrweyl@hotmail.com
| Reply via web post | • | Reply to sender | • | Reply to group | • | Start a New Topic | • | Messages in this topic (10) |
Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.
.
__,_._,___
Anda baru saja membaca artikel yang berkategori dengan judul [TSP_Strategy] Zweig Model Update. Anda bisa bookmark halaman ini dengan URL https://1stleadershipworkshop.blogspot.com/2019/08/tspstrategy-zweig-model-update.html. Terima kasih!
Ditulis oleh:
Andriansyah -
Belum ada komentar untuk "[TSP_Strategy] Zweig Model Update"
Post a Comment