[TSP_Strategy] Capital Markets Review

 

Capital Markets Review (As of 3/31/2019)

Chart of the Week for April 5, 2019 - April 11, 2019

Capital markets earned positive returns in the first quarter of 2019 after a challenging fourth quarter of 2018. In fact, U.S. Large-Cap Stocks earned its highest quarterly return in over ten years. For the 1-year period, U.S. markets generally earned positive returns and Non-U.S. markets generally earned negative returns. For the 5- and 10-year periods, all asset classes shown posted positive returns.

For the first quarter of 2019, all 11 of the U.S. Large-Cap Stock sectors earned positive returns – the first time that's happened since the second quarter of 2014. Meanwhile, the yield curve inverted in late March as longer-term U.S. Treasury yields dipped below shorter-term U.S. Treasury yields. Historically, such inversions have indicated the possibility of a recession. First-quarter GDP is forecasted to come in at 2.1%, according to the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow model as of April 2, 2019, compared to 2.2% growth in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Investors kept an eye on trade talks with China and on the Federal Reserve during the first quarter. Officials from China and the U.S. continued to negotiate, with China agreeing to boost purchases of U.S. goods, open its markets for more U.S. firms, and increase protection for U.S. intellectual property rights. Meanwhile, U.S. Federal Reserve officials left the federal funds rate unchanged in March 2019 and indicated they will take a wait-and-see approach on deciding the future direction of interest rates.

In the chart above:

• U.S. Bonds are represented by the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index.
• U.S. High Yield Bonds are represented by the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Index.
• U.S. Large-Cap Stocks are represented by the S&P 500 Index.
• U.S. Small-Cap Stocks are represented by the Russell 2000 Index.
• International Developed Market Stocks are represented by the MSCI EAFE (Net) Index.
• Emerging Market Stocks are represented by the MSCI Emerging Markets (Net) Index.

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Posted by: sarah_oz@yahoo.com

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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

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