Sarah, I admit that my move could be a bit early (nobody knows what will actually happen), but I wanted to make the transition on a strong Green Day like today. I wouldn't underestimate the power of the Fed - they were the primary cause of this crazy bull market run and will be the primary cause of the eventual recession. I don't see a trade deal until end of Feb at the earliest (and even then, it will not be a truly substantive deal). Might not even get a deal and instead just another extension. China is scrambling to manipulate their economy via virtually every stimulus option known to man, which is not a good sign for long term global growth. Additionally, Europe is on the verge of recession. Global issues only provide more resistance to US markets. To your point on C/SPX 2600 support, I agree and it will be interesting to see how the market reacts at that point and also how current events align with the 2600 mark, which could determine how this thing goes at that particular point.
On Jan 25, 2019, at 3:16 PM, sarah_oz@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy] <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
I also completed my transition to 100% G today. Heavy resistance at SPX 2670-2700. History says a retest is coming, potentially could see a lower low. Next week is a huge week with FOMC, trade negotiations, and continued earnings. Also, all the delayed economic data caused by Govt shutdown should begin trickling out again, which I don't think will be good. Nobody can time/predict the market - my move is based on probabilities and my very strong belief that there is far more downside than there is upside to this market. If I am right, then I will begin scaling back in as we approach December lows. If next week's news causes the SPX to break to the upside through resistance then I will reconsider. If it breaks through the 200MA and consolidates above the 200MA then I will definitely move back in. Good luck all!
RyanWhile we are still clearly in a bear market, I am surprised at the strength being shown by the S fund based solely upon the Fed's recent pronouncements. Now that the Fed Govt has reopened, I'm still in a wait and see mode.If the strength continues, then any downside should find support at 1275 (S fund) or 2600 (C fund).A China deal could also boost the market.
Posted by: Ryan & Brittany Breckner <breckners0410@gmail.com>
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