[TSP_Strategy] US Goods Exports and US Dollar Index

 

U.S. Goods Exports and the US Dollar Index

Chart of the Week for June 5, 2015 - June 11, 2015

The export of U.S. goods is a widely watched economic indicator, as strong U.S. export results can lead to more domestic jobs and economic growth. Exports are influenced by the value of the U.S. Dollar relative to other currencies, and other factors such as tariffs and trade agreements. As the value of the U.S. Dollar increases, U.S. goods become more expensive in foreign countries' currencies. In contrast, U.S. goods exported become cheaper for overseas consumers if the U.S. dollar declines. The chart above measures the monthly dollar value of U.S. goods exports and the value of the US Dollar Index ("DXY"). DXY is an index that measures the value of the U.S. Dollar against a basket of six currencies of U.S. trade partners; the Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona.

As the chart above indicates, the value of DXY was generally decreasing from March 2013 through June 2014, while exports were generally increasing, with some volatility during that time period. Beginning in July 2014, the DXY began to increase, and rose 20.75% between July 2014 and March 2015 . Export numbers increased briefly as the U.S. dollar was beginning to appreciate, and eventually fell 8.81% during the July 2014 through March 2015 time period. The strength of the U.S. Dollar and its impact on exports has been cited as a factor in other economic indicators including GDP (-0.7% growth in 2015 first quarter) and the ISM Manufacturing Index (-11.1% decline from October 2014-March 2015.) Some economists are predicting the U.S. dollar may stay strong and possibly appreciate even more, which may continue to have a negative impact on U.S. Exports.

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Posted by: sarah_oz@yahoo.com

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