Re: [TSPStrategy] FWIW: What I am doing.
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On Sunday, June 26, 2022, 10:18 AM, scsi_guru via groups.io <scsi_guru=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:
Re: [TSPStrategy] FWIW: What I am doing.
https://www.ccmmarketmodel.com/short-takes/bottom-process
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Re: [TSPStrategy] FWIW: What I am doing.
The point that you bring up is already what I understand. The dollar is easy; meanwhile, the mapping of that (+ gold) onto bitcoin is not straightforward. In my opinion, this has little to do with the infancy of bitcoin. One can start with what it is, in an ideal sense, to bypass practical software and algorithmic issues.
So I see the situation with the dollar as a false equivalency -- a method of argument that is popular today.
Generic people issues and societal issues are also a key part of the picture. Furthermore, does the "intent" pan out and how well?
Regards,
Tex
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Re: [TSPStrategy] FWIW: What I am doing.
JP, Impressive. You don't need anyone's opinion. Forgive me for intruding. Best wishes.
Herb, tough question if we include the allocation between G and S/C. It comes down to how much money one needs in order to live and to life expectancy, along with possibly supporting dependents. So that is actually a tougher calculation. I live a very low expense life style, although I am supporting some other people, so I am not a good point of reference.
First Point: If one is afraid of stocks, one should be true to oneself and do whatever one needs to feel safer. My personal assumption is that one is never safe anyway, life is short, and inflation is built into the system. So I would prefer to allocate to stocks, which will increase at least with inflation and probably faster than inflation over the long term. Someone will benefit, even if it is only your heirs. Grin and bear it and expect some psychic pain during bear markets. But above all, whatever I put in stocks, I keep in stocks.
All that being said, just the question of S or C is easier. If one looks ten years out or longer, my preference is pedal to the metal, so that would favor S over C. This is because smaller cap stocks perform better than large cap stocks over long periods of time. For say 10 years or less, it is probably a crap-shoot. On the other hand, the C Fund (S&P 500 Index) is the largest 500 stocks by capitalization and is updated a few times per year, as I remember. This means that companies in C which are declining should be replaced with better performers over time. To me that is a big advantage and I infer that the C Fund is potentially higher quality and less risky than S. So naively, I would offer the following very vague characterization of options:
I fund, probably okay, but I believe that US stocks are easier for me to trust, as long as our economic system continues to thrive.
10-year horizon or less: Stock allocation only (ignoring the G-fund allocation): (a) maximum potential for growth, i.e., pedal to the medal: S Fund; (b) allocation given the unpredictability of performance by large cap (C Fund), medium cap (in the S Fund) and small cap (in the S Fund) 50% C 50% S. (c) Risk averse allocation of stocks: 100 % C. None of these are bad and they all move together in a general way.
Greater than 10 year time horizon: (a) My preference: S Fund for maximum growth; otherwise: (b) Risk averse: C Fund.
20 years or more, if one is prepared to buy and hold: Stocks, stocks, stocks. 100% S would be my choice. Again C is somewhat higher quality in my opinion.
These are what I would do. S and C will perform similarly. Since I am now investing for my heirs, who know little about stocks, I am trying to move to the S&P 500 index ETFs or C Fund, since these are standard throughout the investing industry.
Good luck,
Tex
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Re: [TSPStrategy] FWIW: What I am doing.
If anyone wants to explain the underlying value of bitcoin to me, I would appreciate it.If you want to explain the underlying value of the US dollar to me, I'll take a crack at the underlying value of BTC. Spoiler: I don't think either has an underlying value. They're just units of currency that have varying degrees of confidence from the market/the people. At one time, it held the promise of being a currency that was decentralized (value can't be manipulated) and anonymous, but I think we've seen that neither of those two features is 100%. The big problem BTC has, is that since it's still in its infancy, people are looking at its increase in value as some reason to "invest" in it, when it's only intended to be a currency.
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Re: [TSPStrategy] FWIW: What I am doing.
Thanks,
On Friday, June 17, 2022, 8:09 PM, Locutusoftexas <mrweyl@hotmail.com> wrote:
JP, Impressive. You don't need anyone's opinion. Forgive me for intruding. Best wishes.
Herb, tough question if we include the allocation between G and S/C. It comes down to how much money one needs in order to live and to life expectancy, along with possibly supporting dependents. So that is actually a tougher calculation. I live a very low expense life style, although I am supporting some other people, so I am not a good point of reference.
First Point: If one is afraid of stocks, one should be true to oneself and do whatever one needs to feel safer. My personal assumption is that one is never safe anyway, life is short, and inflation is built into the system. So I would prefer to allocate to stocks, which will increase at least with inflation and probably faster than inflation over the long term. Someone will benefit, even if it is only your heirs. Grin and bear it and expect some psychic pain during bear markets. But above all, whatever I put in stocks, I keep in stocks.
All that being said, just the question of S or C is easier. If one looks ten years out or longer, my preference is pedal to the metal, so that would favor S over C. This is because smaller cap stocks perform better than large cap stocks over long periods of time. For say 10 years or less, it is probably a crap-shoot. On the other hand, the C Fund (S&P 500 Index) is the largest 500 stocks by capitalization and is updated a few times per year, as I remember. This means that companies in C which are declining should be replaced with better performers over time. To me that is a big advantage and I infer that the C Fund is potentially higher quality and less risky than S. So naively, I would offer the following very vague characterization of options:
I fund, probably okay, but I believe that US stocks are easier for me to trust, as long as our economic system continues to thrive.
10-year horizon or less: Stock allocation only (ignoring the G-fund allocation): (a) maximum potential for growth, i.e., pedal to the medal: S Fund; (b) allocation given the unpredictability of performance by large cap (C Fund), medium cap (in the S Fund) and small cap (in the S Fund) 50% C 50% S. (c) Risk averse allocation of stocks: 100 % C. None of these are bad and they all move together in a general way.
Greater than 10 year time horizon: (a) My preference: S Fund for maximum growth; otherwise: (b) Risk averse: C Fund.
20 years or more, if one is prepared to buy and hold: Stocks, stocks, stocks. 100% S would be my choice. Again C is somewhat higher quality in my opinion.
These are what I would do. S and C will perform similarly. Since I am now investing for my heirs, who know little about stocks, I am trying to move to the S&P 500 index ETFs or C Fund, since these are standard throughout the investing industry.
Good luck,
Tex
:
Re: [TSPStrategy] FWIW: What I am doing.
Herb, tough question if we include the allocation between G and S/C. It comes down to how much money one needs in order to live and to life expectancy, along with possibly supporting dependents. So that is actually a tougher calculation. I live a very low expense life style, although I am supporting some other people, so I am not a good point of reference.
First Point: If one is afraid of stocks, one should be true to oneself and do whatever one needs to feel safer. My personal assumption is that one is never safe anyway, life is short, and inflation is built into the system. So I would prefer to allocate to stocks, which will increase at least with inflation and probably faster than inflation over the long term. Someone will benefit, even if it is only your heirs. Grin and bear it and expect some psychic pain during bear markets. But above all, whatever I put in stocks, I keep in stocks.
All that being said, just the question of S or C is easier. If one looks ten years out or longer, my preference is pedal to the metal, so that would favor S over C. This is because smaller cap stocks perform better than large cap stocks over long periods of time. For say 10 years or less, it is probably a crap-shoot. On the other hand, the C Fund (S&P 500 Index) is the largest 500 stocks by capitalization and is updated a few times per year, as I remember. This means that companies in C which are declining should be replaced with better performers over time. To me that is a big advantage and I infer that the C Fund is potentially higher quality and less risky than S. So naively, I would offer the following very vague characterization of options:
I fund, probably okay, but I believe that US stocks are easier for me to trust, as long as our economic system continues to thrive.
10-year horizon or less: Stock allocation only (ignoring the G-fund allocation): (a) maximum potential for growth, i.e., pedal to the medal: S Fund; (b) allocation given the unpredictability of performance by large cap (C Fund), medium cap (in the S Fund) and small cap (in the S Fund) 50% C 50% S. (c) Risk averse allocation of stocks: 100 % C. None of these are bad and they all move together in a general way.
Greater than 10 year time horizon: (a) My preference: S Fund for maximum growth; otherwise: (b) Risk averse: C Fund.
20 years or more, if one is prepared to buy and hold: Stocks, stocks, stocks. 100% S would be my choice. Again C is somewhat higher quality in my opinion.
These are what I would do. S and C will perform similarly. Since I am now investing for my heirs, who know little about stocks, I am trying to move to the S&P 500 index ETFs or C Fund, since these are standard throughout the investing industry.
Good luck,
Tex
:
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Re: [TSPStrategy] FWIW: What I am doing.
Our main home also has good equity (until the housing market crashes). Hopefully it will hold some until we sell in two years when I will probably retire.
On Friday, June 17, 2022, 1:49 PM, Locutusoftexas <mrweyl@hotmail.com> wrote:
Bill and JPass et al.
My policy is to avoid giving advice. However, I would like to offer the group some comments on purely hypothetical cases.
Hypothetical case I: If I were retiring in 20 years or longer, the best strategy for me would not be trading of any sort. I would instead strongly consider being fully invested in stocks until I retired. That would require not letting bear markets bother the investor and not listening to anyone else's advice, including so-called professionals.
Hypothetical case 2: If I were retiring in under 10 years and the market went down as it has now or as it did in March 2020, I would personally invest every cent that I had in stocks right away and not try to find a bottom in the market. Unlike 30 years ago, this market now turns on a dime and even a moderate opportunity to make an extra 20% could easily be lost. Glass half-full sort of thing.
Note: this is not advice. These are hypothetical cases. In my own case, I raised cash to simply my overall portfolio for my heirs when I die. My intention was to put it in the equivalent of the C fund, but low and behold, I saw that the market was going to take a dive. Also my indicators are working. So waiting to buy was just dumb luck. As the actor Mako (playing James Chan) said in the Chuck Norris film, "An Eye for an Eye," when he knocked a bad guy out with a rotary telephone (!), "The warrior uses whatever is closest to hand."
One final comment, I personally know someone who made a few million dollars by mostly buying stocks and other assets and not selling, i.e., by doing nothing. Of course the person did not take vacations and also drove cars until they fell apart. If the person had invested in plain vanilla stock index funds and not sold stocks at all, the figure would have been around double or triple that.
If anyone wants to explain the underlying value of bitcoin to me, I would appreciate it.
As always, I wish you good luck.
Tex
Re: [TSPStrategy] FWIW: What I am doing.
On Jun 17, 2022, at 3:58 PM, Herb Black <blackht71@gmail.com> wrote:
May I ask if you would buy C or S fund now if you were newly retired and had a lot of G fund (Yes, that is me!)On Fri, Jun 17, 2022 at 3:49 PM Locutusoftexas <mrweyl@hotmail.com> wrote:Bill and JPass et al.
My policy is to avoid giving advice. However, I would like to offer the group some comments on purely hypothetical cases.
Hypothetical case I: If I were retiring in 20 years or longer, the best strategy for me would not be trading of any sort. I would instead strongly consider being fully invested in stocks until I retired. That would require not letting bear markets bother the investor and not listening to anyone else's advice, including so-called professionals.
Hypothetical case 2: If I were retiring in under 10 years and the market went down as it has now or as it did in March 2020, I would personally invest every cent that I had in stocks right away and not try to find a bottom in the market. Unlike 30 years ago, this market now turns on a dime and even a moderate opportunity to make an extra 20% could easily be lost. Glass half-full sort of thing.
Note: this is not advice. These are hypothetical cases. In my own case, I raised cash to simply my overall portfolio for my heirs when I die. My intention was to put it in the equivalent of the C fund, but low and behold, I saw that the market was going to take a dive. Also my indicators are working. So waiting to buy was just dumb luck. As the actor Mako (playing James Chan) said in the Chuck Norris film, "An Eye for an Eye," when he knocked a bad guy out with a rotary telephone (!), "The warrior uses whatever is closest to hand."
One final comment, I personally know someone who made a few million dollars by mostly buying stocks and other assets and not selling, i.e., by doing nothing. Of course the person did not take vacations and also drove cars until they fell apart. If the person had invested in plain vanilla stock index funds and not sold stocks at all, the figure would have been around double or triple that.
If anyone wants to explain the underlying value of bitcoin to me, I would appreciate it.
As always, I wish you good luck.
Tex
Re: [TSPStrategy] FWIW: What I am doing.
Bill and JPass et al.
My policy is to avoid giving advice. However, I would like to offer the group some comments on purely hypothetical cases.
Hypothetical case I: If I were retiring in 20 years or longer, the best strategy for me would not be trading of any sort. I would instead strongly consider being fully invested in stocks until I retired. That would require not letting bear markets bother the investor and not listening to anyone else's advice, including so-called professionals.
Hypothetical case 2: If I were retiring in under 10 years and the market went down as it has now or as it did in March 2020, I would personally invest every cent that I had in stocks right away and not try to find a bottom in the market. Unlike 30 years ago, this market now turns on a dime and even a moderate opportunity to make an extra 20% could easily be lost. Glass half-full sort of thing.
Note: this is not advice. These are hypothetical cases. In my own case, I raised cash to simply my overall portfolio for my heirs when I die. My intention was to put it in the equivalent of the C fund, but low and behold, I saw that the market was going to take a dive. Also my indicators are working. So waiting to buy was just dumb luck. As the actor Mako (playing James Chan) said in the Chuck Norris film, "An Eye for an Eye," when he knocked a bad guy out with a rotary telephone (!), "The warrior uses whatever is closest to hand."
One final comment, I personally know someone who made a few million dollars by mostly buying stocks and other assets and not selling, i.e., by doing nothing. Of course the person did not take vacations and also drove cars until they fell apart. If the person had invested in plain vanilla stock index funds and not sold stocks at all, the figure would have been around double or triple that.
If anyone wants to explain the underlying value of bitcoin to me, I would appreciate it.
As always, I wish you good luck.
Tex
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Re: [TSPStrategy] FWIW: What I am doing.
My policy is to avoid giving advice. However, I would like to offer the group some comments on purely hypothetical cases.
Hypothetical case I: If I were retiring in 20 years or longer, the best strategy for me would not be trading of any sort. I would instead strongly consider being fully invested in stocks until I retired. That would require not letting bear markets bother the investor and not listening to anyone else's advice, including so-called professionals.
Hypothetical case 2: If I were retiring in under 10 years and the market went down as it has now or as it did in March 2020, I would personally invest every cent that I had in stocks right away and not try to find a bottom in the market. Unlike 30 years ago, this market now turns on a dime and even a moderate opportunity to make an extra 20% could easily be lost. Glass half-full sort of thing.
Note: this is not advice. These are hypothetical cases. In my own case, I raised cash to simply my overall portfolio for my heirs when I die. My intention was to put it in the equivalent of the C fund, but low and behold, I saw that the market was going to take a dive. Also my indicators are working. So waiting to buy was just dumb luck. As the actor Mako (playing James Chan) said in the Chuck Norris film, "An Eye for an Eye," when he knocked a bad guy out with a rotary telephone (!), "The warrior uses whatever is closest to hand."
One final comment, I personally know someone who made a few million dollars by mostly buying stocks and other assets and not selling, i.e., by doing nothing. Of course the person did not take vacations and also drove cars until they fell apart. If the person had invested in plain vanilla stock index funds and not sold stocks at all, the figure would have been around double or triple that.
If anyone wants to explain the underlying value of bitcoin to me, I would appreciate it.
As always, I wish you good luck.
Tex
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