Without even getting into the dynamics of statistical analysis - your question really falls apart on this item and potentially only this item:
You are restricted to two trades in and a final trade out - a maximum of 3 trades any any calendar month.
That means - you can move out of G into any fund, Move again to any other fund and then you only can move back into the G - no other fund trades would be allowed until the first of the next month..
So, with four weekends (average) per month - the maximum opportunity you would get to harness your Weekend gain would be one event out of the four (25% or less chance to gain a minimal amount).
That is - just one weekend out of four (sometimes five) moving from a fund to G on a Friday - and then back out to a Fund on Sunday (effectively Monday or the next day if Monday were a holiday) while sacrificing all other opportunities to jump into the active funds when they have dropped. The only trade you would have left after that weekend gain would be to move back into G and be stuck there until the first of the next month.
Your risk missing the chance to jump from G to a fund that has had a significant enough drop to warrant getting back in - your gain when it came would effectively wipe any potential gain from using the weekend gain of less than $0.005 (the largest single gain in G over any weekend with a holiday in over eight years).
In current monetary comparisons that equates to less than .000308 or 0.03% and since the G has averaged less than 3% over a total year for quite some time now the most you could possibly gain with this method would be 12 x 0.0308 = .0.369% which is less than almost any funds weekly move in either direction.
Bottom line - you'll have a solid gain for the G but a total loss elsewhere, you'd be better off just staying in the G until you felt the market had hit a bottom you could benefit from and then stick it out until you've at least made it back 1/2 of where it was before it fell. On a simple scale of the last 9 months - that would have resulted in very roughly a 7% gain if you were in the S fund and even more roughly a 4.5% gain if you were in the C.
On Sunday, September 8, 2019, 3:45:10 PM PDT, khp3655@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy] <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
I don't know for sure. I think the trade back in often happens at noon, which would probably be better to maintain time in the stock based funds. The data must be out there. I just happened to see the "jump" in the G fund each weekend/holiday weekend while the other funds were "sleeping" and wondered if there was an inefficiency to exploit.
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Posted by: MDJ <jonesmd2@yahoo.com>
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