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[TSP_Strategy] Shutdown Survivors Brace Yourselves Again

 

Shutdown survivors brace for repeat

 

By Mike Causey | September 16, 2016 1:00 am

When it comes to fulfilling one of the key elements of its job — funding federal operations — Congress gets an F.

Once again, the new fiscal year (Oct. 1) is fast approaching, and once again the House and Senate are squabbling, both internally and with each other, about budgets. Or lack of the same. The threat of a full or partial government shutdown was mostly that, political bluff. But in 1995-96, it happened, surprising both political parties. Republicans took most of the political heat and it wasn't until 2015 that there was another shutdown. The main impact was to anger taxpayers, shut down many government sites and operations, and give "non-emergency" employees, more than a million people, a paid vacation.

Now it's mid-September and nervous members of Congress are anxious to get back on the campaign trail so they can hang onto their jobs for another two (for House members) or six years (for senators)

So what's going to happen? Many people believe there will be a last-minute settlement in the form of a short-term "continuing resolution' that will keep the government rolling temporarily. Like until Friday, Dec. 9, when the pols will be back in Washington (90 percent are likely to be elected) and we'll know whether our next president is Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump or, given the way things have been going, somebody else.

Here's how a top lobbyist sees the shutdown scenario: "Bottom line, I think it's gonna get done. The Senate had a deal, or thought they had a deal Wednesday … but it blew up. " He said the roadblocks to the proposed CR included spending to fight the Zika threat, funds for Planned Parenthood and the issue of Syrian refugees, which is the 2016 version of rounding-up-the-usual-suspects. "I don't think they (Congress) have the stomach for a shutdown a week before the election. Any kind of shutdown is probably going to help the Democrats, at least based on what's happened in the past."

At an event this week, he said he spoke with six members of Congress who, he thought spoke very candidly. "They are expecting the CR to be out by the end of next week. … House members expect the Senate to do a deal (CR) and then leave town and the House will pass whatever the Senate passes" that would likely run through Dec. 9. Then they would have to start all over again.

If you are a veteran of government services odds are you will grin and bear it — and survive — again.

If you are brand-new to public service, get used to it. This may be your first rodeo but it definitely will not be your last.


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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

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