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[TSP_Strategy] Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

[TSP_Strategy] Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

 

Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

Chart of the Week for September 30, 2016 - October 6, 2016

The Consumer Confidence Index hit a nine-year high in September 2016.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (Index) is a closely watched economic indicator published monthly that has been generally improving over the past five years. The Index is based on surveys that measure the level of confidence individual households have related to business conditions in their area and in their family's economic condition. Households are asked five questions: 1) a rating of business conditions in the household's area, 2) a rating of business conditions in six months, 3) job availability in the area, 4) job availability in six months, and 5) family income in six months.

The chart above shows the Index generally improving since September 2011. In fact, the Index in September 2016 reported its highest reading since August 2007. The increase in the Index over the last few years has corresponded with generally improving economic conditions in the U.S. including stronger employment numbers, higher consumer spending, lower gasoline prices, and better business conditions.


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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

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[TSP_Strategy] Taking Your Leave

[TSP_Strategy] Taking Your Leave

 


Best Dates to Retire: Taking Your Leave

3:00 PM ET

Last week, I presented my annual calendar showing the best dates to retire in 2017. I noted that there are a lot of different factors to consider in settling on a date, and the best days aren't necessarily the same for all employees.

One of the most significant considerations is how much annual leave you have accrued and what you can be paid for it. Let's look at a couple of examples.

Stockpiling Leave

Dan plans to retire on Dec. 31, 2017. He will carry over 240 hours of annual leave on Jan. 8, 2017 (the maximum he is allowed to keep in his account at the beginning of the leave year).

Throughout his final year of employment, Dan plans to save the annual leave that he earns each pay period. If he retires on Dec. 31, 2017, he will accrue 25 leave accruals. He earns 8 hours per leave period, so that will be an additional 200 hours of leave plus the 240 hours that he had at the beginning of the year.

If Dan doesn't use any annual leave during 2017, he will be paid for 440 hours of unused annual leave. If his annual pay rate is $73,045, then his hourly pay rate is $35 per hour. Dan's annual leave payment will be worth $35 x 440 = $15,400.

This payment may be subject to federal, state, Social Security and Medicare tax withholding. The lump sum annual leave payment is not subject to withholding for insurance premiums, Thrift Savings Plan contributions, or Civil Service Retirement System or Federal Employees Retirement System deductions.

Close Call

Debbie is planning to retire on Jan. 7, 2017. She will be paid her salary through close of business on Friday, Jan. 6. She also will be paid for all of her accumulated and accrued annual leave, even if her balance exceeds 240 hours. Debbie has 20 years of federal service and is retiring at age 62.

Her FERS retirement benefit will be computed as follows:

  • 20 x 1.1% x $65,000 (her high-three average salary) = $14,300
  • $14,300 / 12 = $1,191 per month
  • Her salary is $61,750 per year or $29.58 per hour

Debbie will have a balance of 300 hours of annual leave on Jan. 7, 2017, for a lump sum payment of $8,874 (subject to federal, state, Social Security and Medicare tax withholding). She will also be paid her salary through close of business Jan. 6, which includes the Jan. 2 holiday. That will be a gross salary payment of $1,183 for her final five days of employment ($29.58 x 40 hours).

Debbie will make an additional contribution to her TSP account of 100 percent of the $1,183 salary (minus the required withholding for retirement and insurance). In addition, she accrued an additional eight hours of annual leave, which was worth $236.64 ($29.58 x 8).

If Debbie retired on Dec. 31, 2016, she would be eligible for the January FERS retirement benefit. But she would forfeit that benefit by waiting until Jan. 7, 2017 to retire. As long as she has 20 years of service on Dec. 31, it may be just as well to retire on Dec. 31 and enjoy an additional week of retirement.

Debbie traded a month of retirement benefits ($1,191) for a week of salary ($1,183) and an additional accrual of annual leave ($236.64). She came out slightly ahead, especially since she was able to put more money in her TSP account. But it was a close call.

Photo: Bureau of Land Management Oregon and Washington, via Flickr


3:00 PM ET

Best Dates to Retire: Taking Your Leave


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Posted by: sarah_oz@yahoo.com
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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

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[TSP_Strategy] Stay Away A Little Longer

[TSP_Strategy] Stay Away A Little Longer

 

Opinion: For investors who sold in May and went away, stay away a little longer

Published: Sept 27, 2016 5:08 a.m. ET

The odds are good that October will produce underperformance

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Don't give up on the Halloween Indicator.

I'm referring to the stock market's seasonal pattern that's also known as "sell in May and go away." Those of you who followed that advice by going to cash on May Day are probably regretting your decision, since you have missed out on the S&P 500 Index's 4%-plus increase since then.

You might even be itching to get back into the stock market now rather than waiting patiently in cash for the full six months to expire.

Don't be too quick to jump the gun.

That's because, even though October, on average, is not as terrible a month as September, it has been even more volatile in the past — the most volatile of the entire calendar, in fact. And odds are good that October's low will be lower than where the stock market stands at the end of September. (See chart at the top of this column.)

Maybe even a lot lower: There is a one-in-four chance that October's low will be more than 5% below its Sept. 30 level.

In other words, there are good reasons why October is grouped with the other post-May months in which it can be wise to stay in the comfort of cash.

To be sure, some traders will look at the same historical data that I have for this column and try to jump back into stocks at October's low rather than wait until the last of the trick-or-treaters have gone to bed. In theory, of course, that could work, since the market typically does recover from its intra-month October low to where it stands on Halloween.

In practice, however, this has been easier said than done. I say that because of the track record of an investment newsletter that over the past decade has recommended a modified Halloween Indicator that attempts to pick better October re-entry points than Halloween (and better exit points than May Day). This letter is the Almanac Investor Newsletter, edited by Jeffrey Hirsch.

According to calculations from the Hulbert Financial Digest, Hirsch's attempt to outsmart the mechanical version of the Halloween Indicator has improved returns only modestly — by only 0.3 percentage point a year since 2002 — while also incurring slightly more volatility, or risk. On a risk-adjusted basis, Hirsch's modification has merely equaled the return of the original Halloween Indicator.

(For the record, I should point out that the Hulbert Financial Digest used to track another newsletter's modification of the Halloween Indicator — from Sy Harding's Street Smart Report. While it performed better than Hirsch's service, adding an annualized average of 1.3 percentage points per year since 2002 to the mechanical version of the indicator, Harding passed away in 2015 and his newsletter no longer is published.)

The bottom line? Don't get seduced into complacency just because the stock market has beaten the poor seasonal odds that have been in place since last May Day. The "sell in May and go away" period still has one more month to go!


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Posted by: sarah_oz@yahoo.com
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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

__,_._,___
[TSP_Strategy] Continuing Resolution thru Dec 9

[TSP_Strategy] Continuing Resolution thru Dec 9

 

Congress Votes to Keep Government Open

September 28, 2016

This story has been updated.

House lawmakers late Wednesday passed a short-term continuing resolution by a vote of 342-85 that funds the government through Dec. 9. Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, offered an amendment to the bill which would automatically extend the CR through Jan. 18 if lawmakers fail to agree on a subsequent deal to keep the government open after Dec. 9. The Senate passed the legislation earlier Wednesday on a vote of 72-26. The votes in both chambers avert a government shutdown just two days before the 2017 fiscal year begins Oct. 1. 

Lawmakers tentatively reached the last-minute deal Tuesday night to avert a government shutdown on Saturday by agreeing to include funding to deal with the water crisis in Flint, Mich., in the 2016 Water Resources Development Act. The Flint funding, which is in the Senate version but not the House version of the waterways bill, became the major sticking point in negotiations over a continuing resolution to keep the government open past Sept. 30. 

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Most Senate Democrats opposed the CR that Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., put forward because it didn't include funding for Flint. The CR does include aid for communities devastated by recent floods in Louisiana and elsewhere, as well as money to combat the Zika virus.

Maryland Sen. Barbara Mikulski, the ranking Democrat on the Appropriations Committee, voted against the CR on Tuesday but after the deal was brokered, offered her support on the floor Wednesday. "This is an acceptable compromise," said the outgoing senator, who represents 300,000 federal workers. "It might not be the most desirable because we will all – we could continue to debate and dispute that – but it is acceptable."

Senate Democrats had wanted to include the Flint money in the CR because it's considered must-pass legislation. Senate Republicans said they would get it into the House waterways bill eventually during conference over that legislation, but Democrats were skeptical, so they forced the debate into CR negotiations.

McConnell worked with the House leadership to get them to immediately amend the water projects bill to include the Flint funding – legislation the chamber is voting on Wednesday afternoon – so that the CR could move forward before Saturday. The two chambers still will have to hammer out differences on the waterways bill in conference this fall, so it will take some time for the money to get to Flint.


September 28, 2016

Congress Votes to Keep Government Open


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Posted by: sarah_oz@yahoo.com
Reply via web post Reply to sender Reply to group Start a New Topic Messages in this topic (1)

Have you tried the highest rated email app?
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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

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[TSP_Strategy] AGG: 112.23 ▼−0.03% - F Fund [1 Attachment]

[TSP_Strategy] AGG: 112.23 ▼−0.03% - F Fund [1 Attachment]

 
[Attachment(s) from romansmr2@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy] included below]

The F Fund


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Attachment(s) from romansmr2@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy] | View attachments on the web

1 of 1 Photo(s)


Posted by: romansmr2@yahoo.com
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Check out the automatic photo album with 1 photo(s) from this topic.
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Have you tried the highest rated email app?
With 4.5 stars in iTunes, the Yahoo Mail app is the highest rated email app on the market. What are you waiting for? Now you can access all your inboxes (Gmail, Outlook, AOL and more) in one place. Never delete an email again with 1000GB of free cloud storage.

Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

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[TSP_Strategy] SPX: 2164.7 ▼−0.57% - C Fund  [1 Attachment]

[TSP_Strategy] SPX: 2164.7 ▼−0.57% - C Fund [1 Attachment]

 
[Attachment(s) from romansmr2@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy] included below]

Here is the SPX chart looking to keep an eye out if it goes below 2,119. 


I am still 50% C Fund.



Live stock, index, futures, Forex and Bitcoin charts on TradingView


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Attachment(s) from romansmr2@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy] | View attachments on the web

1 of 1 Photo(s)


Posted by: romansmr2@yahoo.com
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Check out the automatic photo album with 1 photo(s) from this topic.
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Have you tried the highest rated email app?
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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

__,_._,___
[TSP_Strategy] SPX: 2164.7 ▼−0.57% - C Fund

[TSP_Strategy] SPX: 2164.7 ▼−0.57% - C Fund

 

Here is the SPX chart looking to keep an eye out if it goes below 2,119. 


I am still 50% C Fund.



Live stock, index, futures, Forex and Bitcoin charts on TradingView


__._,_.___

Posted by: romansmr2@yahoo.com
Reply via web post Reply to sender Reply to group Start a New Topic Messages in this topic (1)

Have you tried the highest rated email app?
With 4.5 stars in iTunes, the Yahoo Mail app is the highest rated email app on the market. What are you waiting for? Now you can access all your inboxes (Gmail, Outlook, AOL and more) in one place. Never delete an email again with 1000GB of free cloud storage.

Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

__,_._,___
[TSP_Strategy] Sometimes Investors Like Idleness

[TSP_Strategy] Sometimes Investors Like Idleness

 

Sometimes Investors Like Idleness 


Sometimes Investors Like Idleness • Finimize




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Posted by: romansmr2@yahoo.com
Reply via web post Reply to sender Reply to group Start a New Topic Messages in this topic (1)

Have you tried the highest rated email app?
With 4.5 stars in iTunes, the Yahoo Mail app is the highest rated email app on the market. What are you waiting for? Now you can access all your inboxes (Gmail, Outlook, AOL and more) in one place. Never delete an email again with 1000GB of free cloud storage.

Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

__,_._,___