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Re: [TSP_Strategy] Notice the Effect of the USD

In reading what you have just written, is now a good time to move the percentage of my TSP in F to S? I am retired, so no more allocation, but have 20% still in F which in the last 12 months has done me no favors. Thanks.

Rick

On Saturday, October 7, 2017 12:46 PM, "robert winfield winfield100@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy]" <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

[Attachment(s) from robert winfield included below]

I have been looking at the 15 day moving average of the slopes of the C, S and I funds.

It looks like, using a 15 day moving average to smooth things out,

about 6.5 weeks ago (day 33) the S fund turned upwards to day 1 (yesterday)

The C & I funds have been, (in terms of slope of returns), pretty much in lockstep for the last 3 months ~64 trading days.

It also looks like confirming Sarah's surmise, about 2 weeks ago, the C & I funds diverged with the I going flatter and the C turning up

All these with -->15<-- day smoothing averages

---->(NOTE: READ THE CHART RIGHT TO LEFT<<<<-------

day 1 was friday, day 6 was friday last week, day 61 is 12 weeks AGO

READ RIGHT TO LEFT

(Right is the past, left is now)

The S looks very "tasty" to me also, even though it's flatter, and I continue for me to be 100% in S, so I thank Sarah for her excellent work and pointing me in the right directions

i'm NOT giving investing advice though, and i rarely if ever trade

"why sell a winner? it's a winner"

From: "sarah_oz@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy]" <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com>
To: TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Saturday, October 7, 2017 1:36 PM
Subject: [TSP_Strategy] Notice the Effect of the USD

As the USD has increased above its 50 day MA, I fund returns have dropped significantly.

During the past 3 months, returns have been as follows:

S fund 6.25%
I fund 5.5%
C fund 5.2%

Two months:

S fund 5.25%
C fund 2.8%
I fund 1.4%

One month:

S fund 6.25%
C fund 3.5%
I fund 1.3%

__._,_.___

Posted by: Rick Harris <cmoreparks@yahoo.com>

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Re: [TSP_Strategy] Notice the Effect of the USD [1 Attachment]

[Attachment(s) from robert winfield included below]

I have been looking at the 15 day moving average of the slopes of the C, S and I funds.

It looks like, using a 15 day moving average to smooth things out,

about 6.5 weeks ago (day 33) the S fund turned upwards to day 1 (yesterday)

The C & I funds have been, (in terms of slope of returns), pretty much in lockstep for the last 3 months ~64 trading days.

It also looks like confirming Sarah's surmise, about 2 weeks ago, the C & I funds diverged with the I going flatter and the C turning up

All these with -->15<-- day smoothing averages

---->(NOTE: READ THE CHART RIGHT TO LEFT<<<<-------

day 1 was friday, day 6 was friday last week, day 61 is 12 weeks AGO

READ RIGHT TO LEFT

(Right is the past, left is now)

The S looks very "tasty" to me also, even though it's flatter, and I continue for me to be 100% in S, so I thank Sarah for her excellent work and pointing me in the right directions

i'm NOT giving investing advice though, and i rarely if ever trade

"why sell a winner? it's a winner"

__._,_.___

Attachment(s) from robert winfield | View attachments on the web

1 of 1 Photo(s)

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Posted by: robert winfield <winfield100@yahoo.com>

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Re: [TSP_Strategy] house approves budget that will cut federal benefits

Scary situation!

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On Fri, Oct 6, 2017 at 23:10, GlobalTJB globaltjb@gmail.com [TSP_Strategy]
<TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

http://m.govexec.com/pay-benefits/2017/10/house-approves-budget-would-cut-federal-benefits/141582/?oref=GovExecFB

House lawmakers voted 219-206 Thursday to approve a resolution outlining the body's fiscal 2018 budget priorities, which include a number of controversial cuts to federal employees' retirement and benefits programs.
The House's budget resolution (H. Con. Res. 71) asks 11 committees to come up with a total of $1.5 trillion in spending cuts through budget reconciliation, setting the stage for Republicans' tax reform initiative. Within that, the legislation mandates that the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, which oversees federal compensation and retirement programs, cut $32 billion over the next 10 years.
The resolution does not specify how the oversight committee should achieve savings, but the Trump administration last spring proposed a number of changes to federal retirement: a 6 percentage point increase in employee contributions to the Federal Employees Retirement System, phased in over six years; the elimination of cost of living adjustments for FERS employees and a 0.5 percent reduction in COLAs for Civil Service Retirement System enrollees; elimination of the FERS supplement for employees who retire before Social Security kicks in at age 62; and basing the value of retirement benefits on the highest five years of employees' earnings instead of the current highest three years.
» Get the best federal news and ideas delivered right to your inbox. Sign up here.
The House budget report also offers two new avenues for cutting federal workers' compensation. It proposes reducing the rate of return for the Thrift Savings Plan's G Fund, which is made up of government securities, to make it more indicative of its low "investment risk profile."
And lawmakers proposed changing how the government calculates its contribution to Federal Employees Health Benefits Program premiums. Instead of basing the maximum calculation on the weighted average of the cost of all plans within FEHBP, the federal contribution would increase at the rate of inflation.
Jessica Klement, legislative director of the National Active and Retired Federal Employees Association, described the potential cuts to federal compensation as "hypocrisy."
"This sets the stage for the federal community to pay for tax reform," she said. "You're paying for middle class tax cuts on the backs of middle class federal employees and retirees. It goes against the fundamental premise of this tax reform package."
Rep. Gerry Connolly, D-Va., the vice ranking member of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, called the budget resolution "ruinous," and said that while his committee would be responsible for $32 billion in cuts, the cost of the overall budget to federal workers and retirees could reach as high as $163 billion over the next decade.
"Federal employee pay and benefits are not the cause of this country's deficit and debt," Connolly said. "The federal workforce has already contributed nearly $200 billion toward reducing the country's deficits in the form of pay freezes, pay raises insufficient to keep pace with inflation, furloughs and increased retirement contributions. We should honor and revere the service of our federal workforce, not denigrate it with the attacks included in this ugly budget."
National Treasury Employees Union National President Tony Reardon decried the proposal, which he said would unfairly punish government employees.
"On paper, it may look like a way to save money but in the real world, cutting the paychecks and retirements of federal employees, just to help pay for tax cuts for the wealthy, is a mean-spirited way to build a national budget," Reardon said. "Since when is it acceptable to attack the very people who are providing hurricane relief, protecting clean air and water, conducting cutting-edge scientific research, enforcing the tax laws, securing the border, maintaining the national parks and guarding our financial system?"
On Thursday, the Senate Budget Committee marked up its own fiscal 2018 budget proposal. Ahead of the meeting, it only provided reconciliation instructions to its Finance and Energy and Natural Resources committees. Once passed by the full Senate, lawmakers will need to iron out the differences between their budgets before committees can begin work to find savings.

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Posted by: Samuel Rodriguez <meco_man@yahoo.com>

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[TSP_Strategy] Notice the Effect of the USD

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Posted by: sarah_oz@yahoo.com

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[TSP_Strategy] house approves budget that will cut federal benefits

http://m.govexec.com/pay-benefits/2017/10/house-approves-budget-would-cut-federal-benefits/141582/?oref=GovExecFB

House lawmakers voted 219-206 Thursday to approve a resolution outlining the body's fiscal 2018 budget priorities, which include a number of controversial cuts to federal employees' retirement and benefits programs.

The House's budget resolution (H. Con. Res. 71) asks 11 committees to come up with a total of $1.5 trillion in spending cuts through budget reconciliation, setting the stage for Republicans' tax reform initiative. Within that, the legislation mandates that the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, which oversees federal compensation and retirement programs, cut $32 billion over the next 10 years.

The resolution does not specify how the oversight committee should achieve savings, but the Trump administration last spring proposed a number of changes to federal retirement: a 6 percentage point increase in employee contributions to the Federal Employees Retirement System, phased in over six years; the elimination of cost of living adjustments for FERS employees and a 0.5 percent reduction in COLAs for Civil Service Retirement System enrollees; elimination of the FERS supplement for employees who retire before Social Security kicks in at age 62; and basing the value of retirement benefits on the highest five years of employees' earnings instead of the current highest three years.

» Get the best federal news and ideas delivered right to your inbox. Sign up here.

The House budget report also offers two new avenues for cutting federal workers' compensation. It proposes reducing the rate of return for the Thrift Savings Plan's G Fund, which is made up of government securities, to make it more indicative of its low "investment risk profile."

And lawmakers proposed changing how the government calculates its contribution to Federal Employees Health Benefits Program premiums. Instead of basing the maximum calculation on the weighted average of the cost of all plans within FEHBP, the federal contribution would increase at the rate of inflation.

Jessica Klement, legislative director of the National Active and Retired Federal Employees Association, described the potential cuts to federal compensation as "hypocrisy."

"This sets the stage for the federal community to pay for tax reform," she said. "You're paying for middle class tax cuts on the backs of middle class federal employees and retirees. It goes against the fundamental premise of this tax reform package."

Rep. Gerry Connolly, D-Va., the vice ranking member of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, called the budget resolution "ruinous," and said that while his committee would be responsible for $32 billion in cuts, the cost of the overall budget to federal workers and retirees could reach as high as $163 billion over the next decade.

"Federal employee pay and benefits are not the cause of this country's deficit and debt," Connolly said. "The federal workforce has already contributed nearly $200 billion toward reducing the country's deficits in the form of pay freezes, pay raises insufficient to keep pace with inflation, furloughs and increased retirement contributions. We should honor and revere the service of our federal workforce, not denigrate it with the attacks included in this ugly budget."

National Treasury Employees Union National President Tony Reardon decried the proposal, which he said would unfairly punish government employees.

"On paper, it may look like a way to save money but in the real world, cutting the paychecks and retirements of federal employees, just to help pay for tax cuts for the wealthy, is a mean-spirited way to build a national budget," Reardon said. "Since when is it acceptable to attack the very people who are providing hurricane relief, protecting clean air and water, conducting cutting-edge scientific research, enforcing the tax laws, securing the border, maintaining the national parks and guarding our financial system?"

On Thursday, the Senate Budget Committee marked up its own fiscal 2018 budget proposal. Ahead of the meeting, it only provided reconciliation instructions to its Finance and Energy and Natural Resources committees. Once passed by the full Senate, lawmakers will need to iron out the differences between their budgets before committees can begin work to find savings.

__._,_.___

Posted by: GlobalTJB <globaltjb@gmail.com>

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[TSP_Strategy] Capital Markets Review

Charts of the Week

Capital Markets Review (As of 09/30/2017)

Chart of the Week for October 6, 2017 - October 12, 2017

Capital market returns were positive among the asset classes shown in the third quarter ended September 30, 2017.

Capital market returns were positive for all asset classes and time periods shown above. Over the 1-year period, returns were greater than 15% in four of the six asset classes.

For the third quarter of 2017, global markets generally outperformed U.S. markets. Emerging Market Stocks posted the highest return at 7.89%, U.S. Small-Cap Stocks followed at 5.67%, and International Developed Market Stocks returned 5.40%. An improving outlook for global growth helped Developed Market Stocks. Strengthening commodity prices and a falling U.S. dollar helped Emerging Market Stocks. U.S. Small-Cap Stocks posted strong gains in September 2017 as discussions of U.S. tax policy were seen as positive. U.S. Large-Cap Stocks rose 4.48%, as strong corporate earnings, positive economic news, and strength in Information Technology stocks helped returns. In fixed income, U.S. High Yield Bonds rose 1.98%, as high yield rates generally fell. U.S. Bonds rose 0.85% during the quarter with large offerings by corporate issuers being well received by the market and corporate rates generally fell. Treasury rates generally rose slightly on shorter maturities and fell slightly on longer maturities.

In the chart above:

U.S. Bonds are represented by the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index.
U.S. High Yield Bonds are represented by the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Index.
U.S. Large-Cap Stocks are represented by the S&P 500 Index.
U.S. Small-Cap Stocks are represented by the Russell 2000 Index.
International Developed Market Stocks are represented by the MSCI EAFE (Net) Index.
Emerging Market Stocks are represented by the MSCI Emerging Markets (Net) Index.

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Posted by: sarah_oz@yahoo.com

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Re: [TSP_Strategy] Most TSP Funds Gain in September

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On Mon, Oct 2, 2017 at 21:15, sarah_oz@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy]
<TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

Most TSP Funds Gained Ground in September

By Erich Wagner

12:52 PM ET

Most of the portfolios offered by the 401(k)-style retirement savings program for federal employees grew in September, reversing losses sustained in August.

The Thrift Savings Plan's S Fund, made up of small- and mid-size companies, led the way, increasing 4.26 percent last month. Its 2017 total now sits at 12.76 percent in growth.

The international stocks in the I Fund grew by 2.52 percent in September, bringing the fund's growth this year up to 20.30%. And the C Fund's common stocks increased 2.06 percent last month, which increased its 2017 performance to 14.24 percent.

But the fixed income (F) fund lost 0.48 percent in value last month. Its growth since January is now down to 3.36 percent.

The G Fund, made up of government securities, continued its steady gains, growing by 0.17 percent last month. In 2017, the G Fund has grown 1.73 percent.

All of the TSP's lifecycle funds, which shift investments toward more stable portfolios as people get closer to retirement, saw continued gains in September. The L Income Fund, designed for people who have already begun monthly withdrawals, grew 0.60 percent. L 2020 increased by 1.02 percent; L 2030, 1.60 percent; L 2040, 1.87 percent; and L 2050, 2.14 percent.

In 2017, the L Income Fund has grown by 4.54 percent; L 2020, 7.26 percent; L 2030, 10.47 percent; L 2040, 12.03 percent; and L 2050, 13.44 percent.

By Erich Wagner

12:52 PM ET

http://www.govexec.com/pay-benefits/2017/10/most-tsp-funds-gained-ground-september/141436/

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Posted by: Ken Davis <leaddast@yahoo.com>

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Re: [TSP_Strategy] Notice the Effect of the USD

Re: [TSP_Strategy] Notice the Effect of the USD [1 Attachment]

Re: [TSP_Strategy] house approves budget that will cut federal benefits

[TSP_Strategy] Notice the Effect of the USD

[TSP_Strategy] house approves budget that will cut federal benefits

[TSP_Strategy] Capital Markets Review

Charts of the Week

Capital Markets Review (As of 09/30/2017)

Chart of the Week for October 6, 2017 - October 12, 2017

Re: [TSP_Strategy] Most TSP Funds Gain in September

Most TSP Funds Gained Ground in September

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