Re: [TSPStrategy] FWIW: What I am doing.

I'm watching some of the bigger macroeconomic forces at work here. 1st quarter GDP was -1.6. Second quarter also looking likely to be negative which means the recession started back in January. 

Average bear market if I recall correctly is 20 months and a 39% drop.

Couple this with the highest inflation we've had in more than 40 years. The Govt admitted manipulated inflation rate is 8.6% but if you use the CPI model for the 1980s which was far most representative of true costs, it's more like 15-16%.

The Fed would need to raise the funds rate at a minimum above the stated CPI in order to significantly bring down inflation ala Volker style but that is no longer an option with a 31 Trillion deficit. The Fed will keep raising imho until they break something like the market. I think this market has significant downside yet to come. The end of this month should be particularly interesting with the next rate hike.

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From: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io> on behalf of MD2018 via groups.io <rlkane.wc=verizon.net@groups.io>
Sent: Sunday, June 26, 2022 10:42 AM
To: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io>
Subject: Re: [TSPStrategy] FWIW: What I am doing.

 

I watch a couple of other financial videos. And what they are saying is that until the Fed signals that inflation starts to drop they will continue to raise interest rates. So we might be getting a bounce but the trend is still down. But maybe the bottom is in, but likely to be tested again. 

In the past 2008-09, 2018, 2020 the Fed had our backs and as soon as the market corrected they were lowering interest rates and buying bond. But now they are doing the opposite. Once they stop raising interest rates maybe the market will start trending up. 

What I took from this video was that if you were in cash you could start buying but just not all in, and be ready to go back to cash if the rally fails. 

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On Sunday, June 26, 2022, 10:18 AM, scsi_guru via groups.io <scsi_guru=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

Have we reached bottoms?

https://www.ccmmarketmodel.com/short-takes/bottom-process

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