[TSPStrategy] GovExec - Retirement

Spend it Now or Save it for Later?

The ultimate retirement savings question. 

 

 

From: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io> On Behalf Of dlstox via groups.io
Sent: Saturday, July 23, 2022 5:39 AM
To: TSPStrategy@groups.io
Subject: Re: [TSPStrategy] Government Executive: A Retirement Journey, Part One: Pre-Retirement

 

A Retirement Journey: Health Insurance Issues

The last in a three-part series on one employee's retirement experience.

 

https://www.govexec.com/pay-benefits/2022/07/retirement-journey-health-insurance-issues/374478/

 

 

 

A Retirement Journey, Part Two: The Transition

The second in a three-part series on one employee's retirement experience.

https://www.govexec.com/pay-benefits/2022/07/retirement-journey-part-two-transition/373952/

 

On Tue, Jul 5, 2022 at 8:02 AM dlstox via groups.io <dlstox=gmail.com@groups.io> wrote:

A Retirement Journey, Part One: Pre-Retirement

The first in a three-part series on one employee's retirement experience.

https://www.govexec.com/pay-benefits/2022/06/retirement-journey-part-one-pre-retirement/368840/

Re: [TSPStrategy] Government Executive: A Retirement Journey, Part One: Pre-Retirement

A Retirement Journey: Health Insurance Issues

The last in a three-part series on one employee's retirement experience.

 

https://www.govexec.com/pay-benefits/2022/07/retirement-journey-health-insurance-issues/374478/

 

 

 

A Retirement Journey, Part Two: The Transition

The second in a three-part series on one employee's retirement experience.

https://www.govexec.com/pay-benefits/2022/07/retirement-journey-part-two-transition/373952/

 

On Tue, Jul 5, 2022 at 8:02 AM dlstox via groups.io <dlstox=gmail.com@groups.io> wrote:

A Retirement Journey, Part One: Pre-Retirement

The first in a three-part series on one employee's retirement experience.

https://www.govexec.com/pay-benefits/2022/06/retirement-journey-part-one-pre-retirement/368840/

Re: [TSPStrategy] Government Executive: A Retirement Journey, Part One: Pre-Retirement

The second in a three-part series on one employee's retirement experience.

https://www.govexec.com/pay-benefits/2022/07/retirement-journey-part-two-transition/373952/

On Tue, Jul 5, 2022 at 8:02 AM dlstox via groups.io <dlstox=gmail.com@groups.io> wrote:

The first in a three-part series on one employee's retirement experience.

https://www.govexec.com/pay-benefits/2022/06/retirement-journey-part-one-pre-retirement/368840/

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[TSPStrategy] Government Executive: A Retirement Journey, Part One: Pre-Retirement

The first in a three-part series on one employee’s retirement experience.

https://www.govexec.com/pay-benefits/2022/06/retirement-journey-part-one-pre-retirement/368840/

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Re: [TSPStrategy] FWIW: What I am doing.

@MattG

from last Monday:

"Hedge fund manager Michael Burry issued a tweet Monday suggesting that the Federal Reserve may pause or even reverse its campaign of interest-rate hikes" via Bloomberg 

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Re: [TSPStrategy] FWIW: What I am doing.

I'm watching some of the bigger macroeconomic forces at work here. 1st quarter GDP was -1.6. Second quarter also looking likely to be negative which means the recession started back in January. 

Average bear market if I recall correctly is 20 months and a 39% drop.

Couple this with the highest inflation we've had in more than 40 years. The Govt admitted manipulated inflation rate is 8.6% but if you use the CPI model for the 1980s which was far most representative of true costs, it's more like 15-16%.

The Fed would need to raise the funds rate at a minimum above the stated CPI in order to significantly bring down inflation ala Volker style but that is no longer an option with a 31 Trillion deficit. The Fed will keep raising imho until they break something like the market. I think this market has significant downside yet to come. The end of this month should be particularly interesting with the next rate hike.

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From: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io> on behalf of MD2018 via groups.io <rlkane.wc=verizon.net@groups.io>
Sent: Sunday, June 26, 2022 10:42 AM
To: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io>
Subject: Re: [TSPStrategy] FWIW: What I am doing.

 

I watch a couple of other financial videos. And what they are saying is that until the Fed signals that inflation starts to drop they will continue to raise interest rates. So we might be getting a bounce but the trend is still down. But maybe the bottom is in, but likely to be tested again. 

In the past 2008-09, 2018, 2020 the Fed had our backs and as soon as the market corrected they were lowering interest rates and buying bond. But now they are doing the opposite. Once they stop raising interest rates maybe the market will start trending up. 

What I took from this video was that if you were in cash you could start buying but just not all in, and be ready to go back to cash if the rally fails. 

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On Sunday, June 26, 2022, 10:18 AM, scsi_guru via groups.io <scsi_guru=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

Have we reached bottoms?

https://www.ccmmarketmodel.com/short-takes/bottom-process