Leaders Workshop: March 2022

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

here is an image from 1950's where Chesley Bonestell imagined it for everyone 70 years ago, images many Boomers grew up with constantly.

There is also a very _long_ article with eyewitness reports of Hiroshima and short term survivors that I won't post link to since you don't want nightmares of realities from NYT from 1950

Now, can we resume discussing TSP

On Friday, March 25, 2022, 10:47:02 AM EDT, CarlJ via groups.io <fanz1=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

If you think what happened because Russia invaded Ukraine was bad, what do you think happens if they use a battlefield nuke or worse. I am sitting in G waiting for obliteration or for this Russia crop gets settled or .....

Re: [TSPStrategy] DWCPF which S fund follows

That is really great information. Thank you for providing this along with the instruction to better understand what we're looking at. Much appreciated

Scott

On Fri, Mar 25, 2022 at 11:49 PM winfield100 via groups.io <winfield100=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

Candlestick chart, which graph Open, High low and close
plus linear regression line of the close

lines are high and low
thick bars are open and close

open lower than close, open bar rising prices
open higher than close, solid bar lower prices

1 year

2 months

a visual representation of the past 2 months of DWCPF, which converts to S fund by a formula i don't understand as of yet so any help appreciated

at least the linear regression slope seems to be flatter over the last 9 weeks and seems to have turned positive over the last 4 weeks

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[TSPStrategy] DWCPF which S fund follows

Candlestick chart, which graph Open, High low and close
plus linear regression line of the close

lines are high and low
thick bars are open and close

open lower than close, open bar rising prices
open higher than close, solid bar lower prices

1 year

2 months

a visual representation of the past 2 months of DWCPF, which converts to S fund by a formula i don't understand as of yet so any help appreciated

at least the linear regression slope seems to be flatter over the last 9 weeks and seems to have turned positive over the last 4 weeks

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

Some good info for people thinking on retirement.

https://www.govexec.com/pay-benefits/2022/03/numbers-matter-2022/363340/

On Mar 25, 2022, at 2:05 PM, Damian Cotto via groups.io <damian.cotto=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

Any stats that a person wants to pose they feel might benefit the group I am sure is welcome.

Respectfully,

Damian Cotto

On Friday, March 25, 2022, 13:56, winfield100 via groups.io <winfield100=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

Is not the discussion here focused on the S, C, I, F and G funds, the lifetime funds that are combo's of those?

Is anyone else graphing candlestick style of the funds such as DWCPF (S) fund?

Any emergent patterns?

On Mar 25, 2022, at 1:47 PM, Stan Kays <srkays@gmail.com> wrote:

And I see our media and other groups is right on the ball tracking all of this

Stan Kays
srkays@gmail.com

On Mar 25, 2022, at 11:07, CarlJ via groups.io <fanz1=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

Yes China is a crouching tiger. Taiwan and now a secret treaty discovered with Solomon Islands has the Aussies and the US very nervous if it's signed. Recommend searching that and reading. Just saw it this morning.

On Fri, Mar 25, 2022 at 10:55 AM, Damian Cotto via groups.io
<damian.cotto=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

There is a situation unfolding with China that I am sure is going to rock the boat something awful soon also. Looks like it's the G fund for a bit longer.

Respectfully,

Damian Cotto

On Friday, March 25, 2022, 10:47, CarlJ via groups.io <fanz1=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:
If you think what happened because Russia invaded Ukraine was bad, what do you think happens if they use a battlefield nuke or worse. I am sitting in G waiting for obliteration or for this Russia crop gets settled or .....

--
Stan in Northwest Florida

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

Any stats that a person wants to pose they feel might benefit the group I am sure is welcome.

Respectfully,

Damian Cotto

On Friday, March 25, 2022, 13:56, winfield100 via groups.io <winfield100=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

Is not the discussion here focused on the S, C, I, F and G funds, the lifetime funds that are combo's of those?

Is anyone else graphing candlestick style of the funds such as DWCPF (S) fund?

Any emergent patterns?

On Mar 25, 2022, at 1:47 PM, Stan Kays <srkays@gmail.com> wrote:

And I see our media and other groups is right on the ball tracking all of this

Stan Kays
srkays@gmail.com

On Mar 25, 2022, at 11:07, CarlJ via groups.io <fanz1=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

Yes China is a crouching tiger. Taiwan and now a secret treaty discovered with Solomon Islands has the Aussies and the US very nervous if it's signed. Recommend searching that and reading. Just saw it this morning.

On Fri, Mar 25, 2022 at 10:55 AM, Damian Cotto via groups.io
<damian.cotto=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

There is a situation unfolding with China that I am sure is going to rock the boat something awful soon also. Looks like it's the G fund for a bit longer.

Respectfully,

Damian Cotto

On Friday, March 25, 2022, 10:47, CarlJ via groups.io <fanz1=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:
If you think what happened because Russia invaded Ukraine was bad, what do you think happens if they use a battlefield nuke or worse. I am sitting in G waiting for obliteration or for this Russia crop gets settled or .....

--
Stan in Northwest Florida

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

Is not the discussion here focused on the S, C, I, F and G funds, the lifetime funds that are combo's of those?

Is anyone else graphing candlestick style of the funds such as DWCPF (S) fund?

Any emergent patterns?

On Mar 25, 2022, at 1:47 PM, Stan Kays <srkays@gmail.com> wrote:

And I see our media and other groups is right on the ball tracking all of this

Stan Kays
srkays@gmail.com

On Mar 25, 2022, at 11:07, CarlJ via groups.io <fanz1=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

Yes China is a crouching tiger. Taiwan and now a secret treaty discovered with Solomon Islands has the Aussies and the US very nervous if it's signed. Recommend searching that and reading. Just saw it this morning.

On Fri, Mar 25, 2022 at 10:55 AM, Damian Cotto via groups.io
<damian.cotto=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

There is a situation unfolding with China that I am sure is going to rock the boat something awful soon also. Looks like it's the G fund for a bit longer.

Respectfully,

Damian Cotto

On Friday, March 25, 2022, 10:47, CarlJ via groups.io <fanz1=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:
If you think what happened because Russia invaded Ukraine was bad, what do you think happens if they use a battlefield nuke or worse. I am sitting in G waiting for obliteration or for this Russia crop gets settled or .....

--
Stan in Northwest Florida

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

And I see our media and other groups is right on the ball tracking all of this

Stan Kays

srkays@gmail.com

On Mar 25, 2022, at 11:07, CarlJ via groups.io <fanz1=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

Yes China is a crouching tiger. Taiwan and now a secret treaty discovered with Solomon Islands has the Aussies and the US very nervous if it's signed. Recommend searching that and reading. Just saw it this morning.

On Fri, Mar 25, 2022 at 10:55 AM, Damian Cotto via groups.io
<damian.cotto=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

There is a situation unfolding with China that I am sure is going to rock the boat something awful soon also. Looks like it's the G fund for a bit longer.

Respectfully,

Damian Cotto

On Friday, March 25, 2022, 10:47, CarlJ via groups.io <fanz1=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:
If you think what happened because Russia invaded Ukraine was bad, what do you think happens if they use a battlefield nuke or worse. I am sitting in G waiting for obliteration or for this Russia crop gets settled or .....

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

Yes China is a crouching tiger. Taiwan and now a secret treaty discovered with Solomon Islands has the Aussies and the US very nervous if it's signed. Recommend searching that and reading. Just saw it this morning.

On Fri, Mar 25, 2022 at 10:55 AM, Damian Cotto via groups.io
<damian.cotto=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

There is a situation unfolding with China that I am sure is going to rock the boat something awful soon also. Looks like it's the G fund for a bit longer.

Respectfully,

Damian Cotto

On Friday, March 25, 2022, 10:47, CarlJ via groups.io <fanz1=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:
If you think what happened because Russia invaded Ukraine was bad, what do you think happens if they use a battlefield nuke or worse. I am sitting in G waiting for obliteration or for this Russia crop gets settled or .....

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Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

There is a situation unfolding with China that I am sure is going to rock the boat something awful soon also. Looks like it's the G fund for a bit longer.

Respectfully,

Damian Cotto

On Friday, March 25, 2022, 10:47, CarlJ via groups.io <fanz1=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

If you think what happened because Russia invaded Ukraine was bad, what do you think happens if they use a battlefield nuke or worse. I am sitting in G waiting for obliteration or for this Russia crop gets settled or .....

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

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Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

I did the same thing. It's going to get worse before it gets better.

On Tue, Mar 22, 2022 at 9:39 AM Damian Cotto via groups.io <damian.cotto=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

I think people are simply waiting for things to change before any commitments are made to fund(s). I put everything in G a month ago and that's the only fund with some improvement.

Respectfully,

Damian Cotto

On Tuesday, March 22, 2022, 09:31, TK Ham <snpperhd@gmail.com> wrote:
So I take by the lack of recent discussion this group is no more?

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[TSPStrategy] DWCPF S Fund Candlestick chart, Open High Low close 1 year, 2 months

At least the linear regression trend line is changing steep down around Nov 2021, looks "stabilized" around of January

the regression line is less steep down, BUT the "shooting star" on 3/23 looks unfortunately to be 'downward',
ie, close is lower than open and closed at the low of the day

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

G is a joke but it's good to float until the market changes

Respectfully,

Damian Cotto

On Wednesday, March 23, 2022, 13:14, winfield100 via groups.io <winfield100=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

the F and G funds, at least to me, are pretty much equivalent of cash

On Wednesday, March 23, 2022, 01:08:35 PM EDT, Giabao Pham <phambao14@gmail.com> wrote:

Thank you! I look forward to these.

On Wed, Mar 23, 2022 at 10:01 winfield100 via groups.io <winfield100=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

From looking at this, the S & I funds are back to the linear regression lines as is almost C

On Wednesday, March 23, 2022, 09:56:02 AM EDT, Tim <timothy.j.bryson.civ@army.mil> wrote:

Not sure - i haven't seen any chatter either. However with Markets up down up down I have just stayed put. I have about 5-8 years till i retire so just hoping that the bottom doesn't fall out and we see some gains in the future.

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

the F and G funds, at least to me, are pretty much equivalent of cash

On Wednesday, March 23, 2022, 01:08:35 PM EDT, Giabao Pham <phambao14@gmail.com> wrote:

Thank you! I look forward to these.

On Wed, Mar 23, 2022 at 10:01 winfield100 via groups.io <winfield100=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

From looking at this, the S & I funds are back to the linear regression lines as is almost C

On Wednesday, March 23, 2022, 09:56:02 AM EDT, Tim <timothy.j.bryson.civ@army.mil> wrote:

Not sure - i haven't seen any chatter either. However with Markets up down up down I have just stayed put. I have about 5-8 years till i retire so just hoping that the bottom doesn't fall out and we see some gains in the future.

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

Thank you! I look forward to these.

On Wed, Mar 23, 2022 at 10:01 winfield100 via groups.io <winfield100=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

From looking at this, the S & I funds are back to the linear regression lines as is almost C

On Wednesday, March 23, 2022, 09:56:02 AM EDT, Tim <timothy.j.bryson.civ@army.mil> wrote:

Not sure - i haven't seen any chatter either. However with Markets up down up down I have just stayed put. I have about 5-8 years till i retire so just hoping that the bottom doesn't fall out and we see some gains in the future.

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Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

From looking at this, the S & I funds are back to the linear regression lines as is almost C

On Wednesday, March 23, 2022, 09:56:02 AM EDT, Tim <timothy.j.bryson.civ@army.mil> wrote:

Not sure - i haven't seen any chatter either. However with Markets up down up down I have just stayed put. I have about 5-8 years till i retire so just hoping that the bottom doesn't fall out and we see some gains in the future.

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

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Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

you are free to upload various graphs with technical indicators

On Tuesday, March 22, 2022, 02:37:02 PM EDT, roger swartzmiller via groups.io <res245=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

I sure do miss the comments that Sarah would share with us on here. They were quite informative and helpful. She is the reason that my TSP is where it is. Would like to hear from her more than twice per year. Hope all is well with her

On Mar 22, 2022, at 1:09 PM, clyde.w.mclaren@gmail.com wrote:

Yes it has been. I've changed my allocation to 50/50 C&S. I have a few more years to retire and I'm ok with the market.

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

On Tuesday, March 22, 2022, 01:36:13 PM EDT, Mike Tucker via groups.io <tuckerm83=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

> On Mar 22, 2022, at 9:31 AM, TK Ham <snpperhd@gmail.com> wrote:

> So I take by the lack of recent discussion this group is no more?

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

Sarah,
For our peace of mind, could you make a quick comment, just so we know you’re still around? I think many of us would appreciate that!

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Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

On Mar 22, 2022, at 1:09 PM, clyde.w.mclaren@gmail.com wrote:

Yes it has been. I've changed my allocation to 50/50 C&S. I have a few more years to retire and I'm ok with the market.

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

This group doesn't work that way (daily, weekly or even monthly discussions) - never has. People chime in when they want to, have a question, etc. Sarah shares related articles and other things every once in a while. She also shares changes in the recommended allocation, which is usually a rare thing. As someone shared, I think most are waiting to see how things shake out over the next few months - has been a lot of volatility in the market for many months now.
> On Mar 22, 2022, at 9:31 AM, TK Ham <snpperhd@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> So I take by the lack of recent discussion this group is no more?
>
>
>
>
>

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Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

Yes it has been. I’ve changed my allocation to 50/50 C&S. I have a few more years to retire and I’m ok with the market.

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Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

Its been like this before and always comes back lol.

From: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io> on behalf of TK Ham <snpperhd@gmail.com>
Sent: Tuesday, March 22, 2022 8:31 AM
To: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io>
Subject: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

So I take by the lack of recent discussion this group is no more?

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

I've recovered about 1/2 my loss since Jan but trying to decide if I should short this run and then get back in after it goes back to the lows again.

On Mar 22, 2022, at 9:39 AM, Damian Cotto via groups.io <damian.cotto=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

I think people are simply waiting for things to change before any commitments are made to fund(s). I put everything in G a month ago and that's the only fund with some improvement.

Respectfully,

Damian Cotto

On Tuesday, March 22, 2022, 09:31, TK Ham <snpperhd@gmail.com> wrote:
So I take by the lack of recent discussion this group is no more?

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

I think people are simply waiting for things to change before any commitments are made to fund(s). I put everything in G a month ago and that's the only fund with some improvement.

Respectfully,

Damian Cotto

On Tuesday, March 22, 2022, 09:31, TK Ham <snpperhd@gmail.com> wrote:

So I take by the lack of recent discussion this group is no more?

[TSPStrategy] End of the road

So I take by the lack of recent discussion this group is no more?

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Re: [TSPStrategy] New TSP Features

Forgot to mention, not that I won't trust the new interface and services offered, but like many new ones I'll wait until I see that any bugs are worked through. Also given this I highly recommend (as well as periodically) obtaining a "current funds" verification letter whenever interacting with any of these new features.

On 3/4/22 at 5:26 PM, eljosco@mail.com wrote:

> https://www.tsp.gov/new-tsp-features/?utm_source=website&utm_medium=banner&utm_campaign=getexcited1
>
> Also see the note regarding temporary suspension of some transactions and activities for some time during the month of May.
>
>
>
>
>
>

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[TSPStrategy] New TSP Features

https://www.tsp.gov/new-tsp-features/?utm_source=website&utm_medium=banner&utm_campaign=getexcited1

Also see the note regarding temporary suspension of some transactions and activities for some time during the month of May.

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Re: [TSPStrategy] List of TSP groups / services (free and paid)

Following this Tactical Thrift strategy seems simple and straightforward. Has historical performance been tracked on this approach?

On Wed, Mar 2, 2022 at 7:31 AM KevinH via groups.io <haywoodkb=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

"Tactical Thrift" is a free investment service based on "A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation" by Mebane Faber. The model automatically updates on the first of each month.
Your TSP balance is divided into three portions; one each for the C fund, S fund, and I fund. Each portion is either invested or not-invested in the associated fund. If a portion is not invested, it is held in the G fund for that month.
On the first of month, the moving average for each fund is calculated and a decision is made to invest that portion or to move that third to the G fund.

A more complete explanation is on the website:
https://tactical-thrift.herokuapp.com/

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Re: [TSPStrategy] List of TSP groups / services (free and paid)

"Tactical Thrift" is a free investment service based on "A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation" by Mebane Faber. The model automatically updates on the first of each month.
Your TSP balance is divided into three portions; one each for the C fund, S fund, and I fund. Each portion is either invested or not-invested in the associated fund. If a portion is not invested, it is held in the G fund for that month.
On the first of month, the moving average for each fund is calculated and a decision is made to invest that portion or to move that third to the G fund.

A more complete explanation is on the website:
https://tactical-thrift.herokuapp.com/

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Re: [TSPStrategy] List of TSP groups / services (free and paid)

This is a post from Sarah in January 2020:

TSP Strategy has been following these advisory services:

TSP Talk Plus

TSP Folio

TSP Pilot

Intrepid Timer

TSP Advisor
Rev Shark

TSP Millionaire

TSP Coach

TSP Key

TSP Wealth

We follow sites that (1) have provided and posted at least one year of returns, (2) that are still in business (many advisors go out of business), (3) that offer ONE set of allocations.

It is absurd for an advisor to offer 5 different allocations and then tout the one that has done the best. Which should an investor have chosen?
For that reason, we do not include advisors that offer several allocations or several websites with different allocations.

For that reason, we do not follow:

1. TSP Timing
2. SumGrowth
3. TSP Smart
4. Thrifttrading, tspfundtrading
5. Your TSP Guru is apparently a new site. It offers no information regarding 2019 returns on its site.
6. The Fed Trader does not provide previous year returns on its site.

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[TSPStrategy] List of TSP groups / services (free and paid)

I feel dumb, but having trouble locating a list of TSP groups/services like this group, both paid and free. I found it a couple months back on something someone posted. Can someone point me to a post? I event google searched but it wasn't very effective for some reason.

I like to just compare several.

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