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Soft Skills Development & Training
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"Had Trump not issued an alternative pay plan, locality pay would rise by 24.01%"
Is that percentage a typo?
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The U.S. Conference Board publishes a monthly index of leading indicators that compose seven nonfinancial and three financial components. Economists monitor the index as the data may precede swings in the broader economy. The chart above shows the monthly percentage change in the leading indicators from July 2018 through July 2019.
The July increase of 0.5% was well above the consensus expectation of a 0.2% increase following decreases in the previous two months. Building permits and unemployment claims were the largest contributors to the July increase. Financial markets were a mixed contributor as stock prices were a positive contributor while interest rate spreads were a modestly negative contributor. Economists continue to cite strong labor markets and consumer spending as a positive driver for the economy and caution about the impact of political events such as trade and monetary policies.
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By Tammy Flanagan
August 29, 2019
One of the great things about a three-part retirement plan like the Federal Employees Retirement System is its flexibility. Under FERS, there are three distinct benefits that can be "turned on" at different times:
Among the advantages of this three-tiered plan is that all of your retirement eggs aren't in one basket. Changes that occur in one of the benefits will not affect the other two. Each of the three parts of FERS can provide a lifetime stream of income, but the eligibility rules, tax implications and cost of living protections differ based on the laws that govern these payments.
Although having three sources of retirement income can be more complicated than the simple single-benefit Civil Service Retirement System, it can be an advantage for those people who don't spend their entire careers in federal civilian employment. And even for those who do, the three parts of FERS can replace an employee's salary to adequately provide financial security in retirement.
During FERS employees' federal service, the TSP provides an automatic agency contribution of 1% of salary, and matching contributions for employees who save up to 5% of their basic pay (up to a certain dollar limit). The traditional TSP allows you to save money on a pre-tax basis. (You'll pay taxes on those earnings when you withdraw the money.) The Roth TSP option allows you to save after-tax dollars, so there are no taxes due when you retire.
It's up to you to determine how much to save during your career and how to invest those savings. That means it's important to understand at an early age the value of compound interest and how to balance your investments between stocks and bonds. Saving for retirement requires knowledge and discipline.
When the time comes to retire, federal employees can make a clean break or move on in stages. Some are eligible to retire at younger ages, such as law enforcement officers, foreign service officers and firefighters. All federal workers covered under FERS can retire at their minimum retirement age (55-57, depending on year of birth) if they have completed 30 years of creditable service, or a minimum of 10 years of service for a reduced benefit. For those who entered federal service later in life, an unreduced benefit is payable at age 60 with at least 20 years of service and at 62 with a minimum of five years of service.
Some federal employees retire from government and start a second career in the private or nonprofit sector. Others return to federal service under a reemployed annuitant program or continue working part time under phased retirement regulations.
You can claim your Social Security retirement benefit and begin taking TSP withdrawals at the same time as when you apply for your FERS retirement benefit. Or you might decide to stagger these benefits for various reasons.
A reduced Social Security retirement is payable as young as age 62. You can delay taking it until as late as age 70 to get a bigger payout. FERS employees who retire younger than 62 with an unreduced immediate benefit are eligible for a supplement designed to bridge the time between retirement and qualifying for Social Security benefits at age 62.
Withdrawals from the TSP are the most flexible of the three benefits of FERS, and the options for withdrawing from your TSP will be further liberalized next month when new regulations take effect. Separated TSP participants will be able to choose monthly, quarterly or annual withdrawals. In addition, partial lump sum payments can be made as needed while taking monthly payments.
You can also choose a life annuity option, providing a monthly benefit. Multiple annuity purchases will be allowed under the new withdrawal program.
Are you ready to take charge of your future? There's a lot to learn about how the three parts of FERS retirement mesh together, but knowing how they work can reveal the secrets to a financially secure retirement.
By Tammy Flanagan
August 29, 2019
https://www.govexec.com/pay-benefits/2019/08/turning-your-retirement-benefits/159532/
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By Erich Wagner
August 30, 2019
President Trump on Friday issued his alternative pay plan for 2020, endorsing a 2.6% across the board pay increase for civilian federal employees, effectively ending the administration's push for a pay freeze next year.
Each year, the president is required to submit an alternative pay plan to Congress by the end of August, or else significant automatic pay increases will take effect under the Federal Employee Pay Comparability Act. Had Trump not issued an alternative pay plan, locality pay would rise by 24.01% next year, and base pay would increase 2.6%.
Although since the introduction of Trump's fiscal 2020 budget request, the White House has pushed for a pay freeze next year, Trump reversed course Friday, calling for a 2.6% increase in base pay, but no increases to locality pay.
"Specifically, I have determined that for 2020—while across-the-board base pay will increase by 2.6%, as prescribed by [FEPCA]—the locality pay percentages . . . will remain at their 2019 levels," Trump wrote. "This alternative pay plan decision will not materially affect our ability to attract and retain a well-qualified federal workforce."
The pay increase proposal essentially defuses most debate over a pay raise in Congress. Although the Senate has not unveiled any of its spending bills, the House has passed funding legislation that would have provided an average 3.1% pay increase for federal workers—a 2.6% across the board raise coupled with an average 0.5% increase in locality pay.
Despite the reversal on a pay freeze, Trump said his administration would continue to pursue working toward a performance-based pay system.
"As noted in my budget for fiscal year 2020, our pay system must reform to align with mission-critical recruitment and retention goals, and to reward employees whose performance provides value for the American people," Trump wrote. "My administration will continue to support reforms that advance these aims."
By Erich Wagner
August 30, 2019
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https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2019/07/18/WEOupdateJuly2019
World Economic Outlook, July 2019
Still Sluggish Global Growth
•Global growth remains subdued. Since the April World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, the United States further increased tariffs on certain Chinese imports and China retaliated by raising tariffs on a subset of US imports. Additional escalation was averted following the June G20 summit. Global technology supply chains were threatened by the prospect of US sanctions, Brexit-related uncertainty continued, and rising geopolitical tensions roiled energy prices.
•Against this backdrop, global growth is forecast at 3.2 percent in 2019, picking up to 3.5 percent in 2020 (0.1 percentage point lower than in the April WEO projections for both years). GDP releases so far this year, together with generally softening inflation, point to weaker-than-anticipated global activity. Investment and demand for consumer durables have been subdued across advanced and emerging market economies as firms and households continue to hold back on long-range spending. Accordingly, global trade, which is intensive in machinery and consumer durables, remains sluggish. The projected growth pickup in 2020 is precarious, presuming stabilization in currently stressed emerging market and developing economies and progress toward resolving trade policy differences.
•Risks to the forecast are mainly to the downside. They include further trade and technology tensions that dent sentiment and slow investment; a protracted increase in risk aversion that exposes the financial vulnerabilities continuing to accumulate after years of low interest rates; and mounting disinflationary pressures that increase debt service difficulties, constrain monetary policy space to counter downturns, and make adverse shocks more persistent than normal.
•Multilateral and national policy actions are vital to place global growth on a stronger footing. The pressing needs include reducing trade and technology tensions and expeditiously resolving uncertainty around trade agreements (including between the United Kingdom and the European Union and the free trade area encompassing Canada, Mexico, and the United States). Specifically, countries should not use tariffs to target bilateral trade balances or as a substitute for dialogue to pressure others for reforms. With subdued final demand and muted inflation, accommodative monetary policy is appropriate in advanced economies, and in emerging market and developing economies where expectations are anchored. Fiscal policy should balance multiple objectives: smoothing demand as needed, protecting the vulnerable, bolstering growth potential with spending that supports structural reforms, and ensuring sustainable public finances over the medium term. If growth weakens relative to the baseline, macroeconomic policies will need to turn more accommodative, depending on country circumstances. Priorities across all economies are to enhance inclusion, strengthen resilience, and address constraints on potential output growth.
In the United States, 2019 growth is expected to be 2.6 percent (0.3 percentage point higher than in the April WEO), moderating to 1.9 percent in 2020 as the fiscal stimulus unwinds. The revision to 2019 growth reflects stronger-than-anticipated first quarter performance. While the headline number was strong on the back of robust exports and inventory accumulation, domestic demand was somewhat softer than expected and imports weaker as well, in part reflecting the effect of tariffs. These developments point to slowing momentum over the rest of the year.
https://www.kiplinger.com/article/business/T019-C000-S010-gdp-growth-rate-and-forecast.html
Consumer spending surged in the second quarter to lift GDP growth to 2.0% after 3.1% growth in the first quarter. Government also contributed strongly to growth. However, business investment in equipment, inventories and structures was weak, along with housing and exports.
Consumers are carrying a heavy load. If the weakness in business spending and exports starts to affect employment, then consumers may start pulling back.
Corporate profits bounced back in the second quarter after weakness in the first quarter. That was a welcome sign that may boost business confidence a bit, though profits at domestic nonfinancial corporations have not made it back to their fourth-quarter peak level.
Growth in the second half of the year is likely to be around 2.0%, leaving growth for the year at about 2.3%. GDP growth will soften a bit again in 2020, an election year, dropping to about 1.8%. It is expected that the tax-cut stimulus will wane, and the trade deficit will again be a worry. Uncertainties about global growth may limit businesses' willingness to expand, especially as the U.S.-China trade war appears to be heating up again.
https://www.kiplinger.com/article/business/T019-C000-S010-business-spending-forecast.html
Businesses are scaling back spending on new equipment as uncertainty mounts about the outcome of the U.S.-China trade war. The two leading economies are engaged in a tit-for-tat battle that has each slapping successive rounds of penalties against the other's exports. Global growth is slowing as trade tensions ramp up, a further drag on investment plans. In the latest escalation, President Trump says he will raise the existing 25% tariff rate on $250 billion of Chinese goods to 30% on October 1. Additionally, tariffs on another $300 billion of Chinese goods, which start on September 1 for some products and December 15 for others, will now be at a rate of 15% instead of the original 10%. Overseas sales of U.S. agricultural products like soybeans have virtually dried up as China has turned to Brazil and other suppliers. And the export-reliant U.S. manufacturing sector is losing momentum, partly because aircraft maker Boeing has not yet been able to get its grounded 737 Max aircraft certified as safe to return to service.
A scant 2% rise in capital spending is in store this year, before shrinking to 1% growth in 2020. Until recently, there was reason to hope for a second-half pickup that might lift spending this year to the 5% growth range, but that no longer seems likely as the United States and China continue to impose penalties on one another that dim chances for a trade agreement — or even a cease-fire. Business spending in 2018 was up 6%, a figure that now looks robust by comparison, though it was modest by standards of recent decades, when double-digit annual increases were common. Surveys show factory business in several major regions weakening at the start of the third quarter, implying a looming falloff in shipments of finished goods that is likely to keep investment constrained in coming months.
A global slowdown in economic activity weighs heavily on companies' investment plans. Europe's outlook is deteriorating as its export markets in China soften, while China itself is experiencing a decline in exports that is putting its economy under strain. Britain continues to grapple with its planned exit from the European Union, which Prime Minister Boris Johnson insists will happen on October 31 with or without a deal in place for handling future trade relations. A no-deal exit will disrupt supply lines between Britain and the EU, potentially wreaking economic damage on both sides if shortages and logistic snarls occur as anticipated.
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Just to confirm, the Social Security Government Pension Offset does not apply to FERS employees?
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Just wonder if that Dec. '18 figure was an anomaly.
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Thanks Sarah for the article, great suggestion!
Thinking About the Unthinkable
By Tammy Flanagan
August 22, 2019
The loss of a spouse is a traumatic and life-changing event. In my seminars and individual retirement counseling, I encourage married couples to prepare for the day when there is only one of them instead of two.
Decisions made at retirement can have a significant impact on a surviving spouse, yet it's hard to imagine and difficult to think through the options. It isn't easy to figure out where to begin since it's hard to know exactly what the future might hold in terms of health, finances and other factors. It's challenging enough to prepare for retirement when you and your spouse are alive and well, let alone trying to figure out what happens when one of you passes away.
There are some simple steps you can take now to reduce the burden on your family when the time comes to do the paperwork and make the changes that need to be made. Because when that time comes, the surviving spouse is likely to be overcome with the shock, grief, numbness, sadness and fear that is part of the process of mourning.
My dear friend Georgia recently experienced the tragic and untimely loss of her husband, who was only 59 years old. Andy was a federal employee who was planning to retire in a few years. He had already retired from a distinguished career as a county firefighter. Georgia is a federal retiree herself and has learned the hard way about things she and Andy could have been done earlier to make what she has dubbed "the business of death" a little easier to bear.
Georgia recommends that everyone take the time to put together their personal and financial information in an organized, accessible way. The National Active and Retired Federal Employees Association provides a document called "Be Prepared for Life's Events" that includes advice on how to do this. It's critical that in the event you or your spouse dies, you are able to access the names, addresses, claim numbers, documents, account numbers, passwords and other pieces of information that will be needed to transfer benefits, pay bills and claim inheritances.
Unfortunately, Andy had not organized this information for Georgia. This has led to many unpleasant surprises as she attempts to unlock bank accounts, credit card information, and cell phone plans. Only three weeks after Andy's passing, she got an unpleasant phone call from the credit union that had provided him a loan to purchase a truck earlier this year. Since the truck was in his name, she was threatened with repossession of the vehicle unless the loan balance was paid immediately. She thought she'd have more time to figure out what to do.
Of course, Georgia and Andy did many things right. She's grateful that he maintained life insurance and they provided for each other by choosing spousal survivor benefits when she retired from federal service and when he retired from his county job.
Georgia has now requested that her Civil Service Retirement System benefit be restored to the unreduced amount, so she will receive her full retirement benefit retroactive to the date of Andy's death. In addition, she has completed the paperwork to change her beneficiary designations for her government life insurance, Thrift Savings Plan account and CSRS retirement benefit.
Georgia also needed to change her health insurance from self plus one enrollment to self only. Her late husband's employer sent representatives from human resources to her home within a few days of his death and helped her complete the necessary forms to release the lump sum death benefit from his retirement coverage under the Federal Employees Retirement System, along with Federal Employees Group Life Insurance proceeds and the transfer of the funds in his TSP account to hers.
Georgia will not be entitled to widow's benefits from her late husband's Social Security record because those benefits will be offset by two-thirds of her CSRS retirement under Government Pension Offset provisions. She will, however, receive a one-time funeral payment of $255 fromSocial Security. The total funeral expense was closer to $10,000.
Georgia is also glad that she and Andy had made an appointment with an estate planning attorney last year and completed the funding of a family trust and had durable powers of attorney and medical directives completed.
There is much work still to be done. Joint accounts must be closed and replaced with accounts in her name only. Tax issues must be tackled, such as which benefits she is slated to receive are taxable. This includes the FERS basic employee death benefit. She can choose to take it in a single lump sum payment or receive it over 36 months to spread out the tax burden.
Georgia will need to make an appointment to update their trust documents and her will. She will also have to change gears and set new goals for her future as a surviving spouse, deciding where she will live and what she will need to get through the process of grieving her loss.
If you'd like to hear Georgia talk about her federal service, retirement and going through the loss of her life partner, listen to "Federal Retirement: A Personal Story" on Federal News Network.
By Tammy Flanagan
August 22, 2019
https://www.govexec.com/pay-benefits/2019/08/thinking-about-unthinkable/159381/
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The U.S. Census Bureau publishes a monthly survey of merchandise sold by establishments primarily engaged in retail trade. Economists consider it an important measure of consumer spending activity and a leading contributor to Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The chart above shows the monthly percentage change in U.S. Retail Sales from July 2018 through July 2019.
Retail sales had mixed results over the past year ranging from a high of 1.8% growth in March 2019 to a decline of -2.0% in December 2018. The July 2019 increase of 0.7% was the largest since March 2019, and a 3.4% increase from July 2018. Economists noted both positive and negative factors in the July retail sales results. Positive factors included a strong labor market, continuing wage growth, and high savings rates. Negative factors included volatility in the capital markets, the trade situation with China, and falling consumer sentiment.
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