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Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Anyone Jumping Out of S?

Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Anyone Jumping Out of S?

 

well, based on today S fund being UP ~
1.15%, what is your take on it?
i'm still 100% S
 
Do you still think the S fund uptrend is slowing down?  Looks like the slope is increasing.  I am wondering now how to compare this rise with other time periods to make some sort of informed determination whether to get out now or stay in....I have to think we are going to have to run out of gas in this rally - at least short term....


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Posted by: robert winfield <winfield100@yahoo.com>
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Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Anyone Jumping Out of S?

Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Anyone Jumping Out of S?

 

Remember one of the oldest adages in investing, which we are doing in the TSP

"Cut your losses, and let your profits run"
You can easily set up a slope function in Excel, and note the C&I funds, presently, are in virtual lockstep, and the S has steeper up and down slopes.
You can also easily set up Bollinger bands, which are simply a 20 day, simple moving average, bounded by +/- 2 standard deviation bands.
Look at them and understand them.
The slopes may be flattening, which means they are not rising as fast
The Bollinger bands are pointed upwards.
So, why sell a winner?
Right now it's a winner.
The moving averages smooth out extraneous noise.
You also need to set aside time daily and update charts daily, without fail.
It can take as little as 10 minutes.
It's your retirement money.
Is it worth 10 minutes a day?


 

Do you still think the S fund uptrend is slowing down?  Looks like the slope is increasing.  I am wondering now how to compare this rise with other time periods to make some sort of informed determination whether to get out now or stay in....I have to think we are going to have to run out of gas in this rally - at least short term....

__._,_.___

Posted by: robert winfield <winfield100@yahoo.com>
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Have you tried the highest rated email app?
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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

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Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Anyone Jumping Out of S?

Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Anyone Jumping Out of S?

 

Thanks Sarah - do you think this based on the strength of this months rally? 

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Posted by: timedtrade@gmail.com
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Have you tried the highest rated email app?
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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

__,_._,___
Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Anyone Jumping Out of S?

Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Anyone Jumping Out of S?

 

I think it has only begun.

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Posted by: sarah_oz@yahoo.com
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Have you tried the highest rated email app?
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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

__,_._,___
Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Anyone Jumping Out of S?

Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Anyone Jumping Out of S?

 

Do you still think the S fund uptrend is slowing down?  Looks like the slope is increasing.  I am wondering now how to compare this rise with other time periods to make some sort of informed determination whether to get out now or stay in....I have to think we are going to have to run out of gas in this rally - at least short term....

__._,_.___

Posted by: timedtrade@gmail.com
Reply via web post Reply to sender Reply to group Start a New Topic Messages in this topic (32)

Check out the automatic photo album with 4 photo(s) from this topic.
image1.PNG image1.PNG image1.PNG image1.PNG

Have you tried the highest rated email app?
With 4.5 stars in iTunes, the Yahoo Mail app is the highest rated email app on the market. What are you waiting for? Now you can access all your inboxes (Gmail, Outlook, AOL and more) in one place. Never delete an email again with 1000GB of free cloud storage.

Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

__,_._,___
[TSP_Strategy] TSP Millionaire's Guide

[TSP_Strategy] TSP Millionaire's Guide

 

TSP millionaire's guide

Mike Causey

September 26, 2017

 

What sort of investment advice do you give a career civil servant who became a millionaire the hard way, by steadily investing in his optional 401(k) plan, the Thrift Savings Plan?

Short answer: Not much.

In the beginning, all of the people who had million-dollar TSP accounts were millionaires before they came into government. Some were high-paid lawyers who were appointed federal judges. They brought their outside retirement nest egg into the TSP because of its fees (the lowest in the business) and the federal oversight of the plan. Others were millionaires elected to Congress. Some made their fortunes before getting into national politics. Others married well. Some made big bucks after serving in the House or Senate, which raises other questions.

But now, thanks to steady-as-she-goes-investing — and an 8-year hot streak in the stock market — the number of TSP millionaires is pushing (or maybe has passed) 20,000 investors. There are now almost 50,000 people with account balances between $750,000 and $999,999. On average, the millionaires have been investing just over 28 years, while the average for the millionaires club is almost 29 years.

In talks with a number of self-made millionaires, a common theme emerges. They continued to invest in good times and bad, they did not pull out of the stock market during the Great Recession, nor did they trade in their stock shares — the C, S and I funds — and put them in the Treasury securities G fund to wait until a "good" time to go back into the market. Most had most, nearly all or all of their money in the U.S. stock market-indexed C and S funds. Some bold investors also rode out the topsy-turvy international stock fund, which currently is on a hot streak. They continued to invest the same amount of money each payday, whether the markets were booming or tanking. When share prices were down, they bought more. When they were up, they bought fewer shares but continued to invest the same amount. It's called dollar-cost averaging.

A few feds have said they wished we would not talk about TSP millionaires. They think their political enemies will use it to prove that bureaucrats are overpaid. But except for the political appointees, all the millionaires are truly self-made. They took part of their salary (and if they were smart, the 5 percent government match) and invested over decades. It should be a tribute to all federal workers that so many have set up their own retirement nest egg and done so well by smart, no-panic investing.

From time to time, we hear from one of the millionaires. Their stories are similar, but always interesting. Start early, max out, stay the course. Last week, we heard from a Florida-based fed who explained how he did it:

"Mike,

I am a homegrown TSP member.

After 30 years of aggressive investing, primarily in the C fund, I have reached my goal.
I am lucky and proud that aggressive investing has given me a balance over $1.5 million. Today, I am putting my 80 percent C fund and 20 percent S fund directly into the G fund, 100 percent.

My tentative plan is to retire in 2018 after 32 years, and I think that I have taken enough risk for now.

I think my TSP balance is among the elite Seal Team TSP, who are homegrown investors.

My personal Roth IRA has another $500K in Fidelity Mutual funds, which I plan to keep as is.

In addition, my wife has two IRAs, which have done very well.

The key to success is maximum contributions and aggressive investing during a 30-year career.

I enjoy your column and especially your show on Federal News Radio." — Anon Please

Hardly the portrait, or portfolio, of clock-watching, time-serving bureaucrats!


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Posted by: sarah_oz@yahoo.com
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Have you tried the highest rated email app?
With 4.5 stars in iTunes, the Yahoo Mail app is the highest rated email app on the market. What are you waiting for? Now you can access all your inboxes (Gmail, Outlook, AOL and more) in one place. Never delete an email again with 1000GB of free cloud storage.

Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

__,_._,___
[TSP_Strategy] US Fed Reserve Rate Odds

[TSP_Strategy] US Fed Reserve Rate Odds

 


Charts of the Week

September 2017 U.S. Federal Reserve Rate Odds

Chart of the Week for September 22, 2017 - September 28, 2017

Predictions of Federal Reserve interest rate actions can be volatile.

On September 20, 2017, the Federal Open Market Committee ("FOMC") of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board announced that the target rate range of the Federal Funds Rate ("Fed Funds") would remain unchanged. Target rate range changes are one of the most widely monitored economic indicators and expectations of a rate change can impact markets. The chart above shows the probabilities of an increase in the Fed Funds target rate range at the FOMC's September 2017 meeting beginning in January 2017, which is compiled by Bloomberg based on Fed Funds futures trading data.

The probability of a change can move rapidly based on domestic or global events. From January through June 2017, the predictions were for at least a 79% chance of an increase in September. In June 2017, the probability was 93%, but the FOMC raised the target rate range that month and also indicated they would change their balance sheet management by not reinvesting the proceeds of maturing securities. By the beginning of July and August, the chances of an increase had dropped to 22% and 6% respectively. The range was not increased in September and the probability of a rate increase from the FOMC in December 2017 was 60% as of September 20, 2107.


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Posted by: sarah_oz@yahoo.com
Reply via web post Reply to sender Reply to group Start a New Topic Messages in this topic (1)

Have you tried the highest rated email app?
With 4.5 stars in iTunes, the Yahoo Mail app is the highest rated email app on the market. What are you waiting for? Now you can access all your inboxes (Gmail, Outlook, AOL and more) in one place. Never delete an email again with 1000GB of free cloud storage.

Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

__,_._,___