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[TSPStrategy] TSP Investing Advice?

[TSPStrategy] TSP Investing Advice?

There doesn't seems to be much advise on this forum recently.

I have been following this blog:
 TSP Wealth  https://tspwealth.substack.com/
He seems to be doing quite well.

Martin Zwieg's book still has some good advice, even years after his passing.  He says the last three months of the year are the best for stocks. I usually stay in the market from mid-October to mid-January each year, although the unrest in Middle East and the continuing war in Ukraine have put a dent stock values for October.

Do you have any advisers to follow that are not expensive?
Do you know any books applicable to TSP investing?
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[TSPStrategy] Time for the fall deadlines - A checklist to help you prioritize as you sort through your federal retirement and insurance benefits.

[TSPStrategy] Time for the fall deadlines - A checklist to help you prioritize as you sort through your federal retirement and insurance benefits.

https://www.govexec.com/pay-benefits/2023/10/time-fall-deadlines/391547/

Time for the fall deadlines

A checklist to help you prioritize as you sort through your federal retirement and insurance benefits.

It is that time of the year when many federal employees as well as retirees have to make some important decisions regarding their federal retirement and insurance benefits. I thought it might be a good time to make a checklist of things that you may be facing this fall so that you may prioritize those that may be important to you.

CSRS or FERS Retirement

  • Are you preparing to retire at the end of 2023? If so, now is the time to submit your CSRS or FERS retirement application to your agency HR office. You should also receive a final retirement estimate for your planned retirement date along with a summary of your federal service prepared by a retirement specialist in HR.  If you are covered by FEGLI, you should also submit the Continuation of Life Insurance form SF 2818 along with your retirement application.
  • Maintain copies of your completed applications and copies of your records of federal service that show your beginning and ending dates of employment, changes in retirement coverage as well as changes in your work schedule. Be sure that you also have documentation of your health and life insurance coverage showing that you have been covered during the last five years of your federal service. Update your CSRS or FERS, FEGLI, and TSP beneficiary designations if necessary as well.

Federal Long Term Care Insurance Program

2023 Enrollee Decision Period Deadline: Nov. 9, 2023. Long Term Care Partners, LLC, administrator of the Federal Long Term Care Insurance Program, mailed Enrollee Decision Period letters to FLTCIP enrollees impacted by the current premium increase effective Jan.1, 2024. The mailings started in September 2023 and the letter includes information about the premium increase with personalized options to help mitigate the impact of the increase. You can also view your options online in your My LTCFEDS account. Be sure to consider the value of this benefit as you make your decision regarding accepting the increase or the option to reduce your benefit period, daily or weekly benefit amount or inflation adjustment.  If you need additional information to help you make your decision, call from 9 a.m. to 7 p.m. ET:

1-800-LTC-FEDS (1-800-582-3337)

TTY 1-800-843-3557

Int'l 1-571-730-5938

Federal Employees Health Benefits Program

There is a lot of valuable information in the Federal Benefits Open Season Highlights that OPM has published for the 2024 Plan Year. Here are some highlights from the "Highlights:"

  • Open Season will be held from Nov. 13 through Dec. 11, 2023
  • Everyone has the opportunity to review their plans, make changes, and enroll in one of 157 FEHB plan choices for 2024.
  • There are some plans that will be leaving FEHB next year and they are listed in the OPM Open Season Highlights. Aetna Direct is not leaving and many retirees who are enrolled in itt received a notice regarding Aetna Open Access that is leaving the Kansas City Metro area.  Understandably, these participants were not sure if this was a notice regarding their Aetna Direct coverage and fortunately, it was not. Letters were subsequently mailed to clarify the error and assure these Aetna Direct participants that they can remain in this plan for 2024.
  • Find your health plan rate for 2024 to see how much it is going up. There are two national plans, SAMBA High Option and Rural Carrier Benefit Plan, with rates that are decreasing for 2024, however one is a restricted plan. There are also a few HMOs with price reductions as well. A few plans are keeping prices the same or close to the same for next year, but some plans will see increases that will be higher than the average of 7.7%.  
  • If you do nothing else this open season, review your plan brochure for 2024 and on the front cover, you will find a reference to pages in the brochure that provide the changes in your plan for 2024, a summary of benefits, and the new premiums.

Medicare and FEHB

  • If you are retired and over age 65, there are several open enrollment periods to be aware of:
    • Initial Enrollment Period that begins three months before you turn 65 and lasts for three months after your 65th birthday (seven months total). This is when most people enroll in original Medicare, Parts A and B.
    • If you are covered by current employment health insurance (either you or your spouse is working and you are covered by FEHB through this current employment), you may delay enrollment in Medicare. Part A does not have a premium if you've paid the 1.45% payroll tax (or your spouse has paid this tax), so not much reason to avoid Part A (unless you are contributing to a Health Savings Account). If you are receiving Social Security retirement benefits when you reach age 65, you will be automatically enrolled in A and B. If you want to delay part B until you (or your spouse who has you covered under their current employment health plan) have retired, you will have a Special Enrollment Period that will last for eight months following the month of retirement.  
    • If you missed your IEP and SEP, there is an annual General Enrollment Period that begins on Jan. 1 and runs through March 31 where you may enroll in Part B. Keep in mind that for every 12 months that you could have been enrolled, but weren't, there is a permanent 10%late enrollment penalty. For 2024, each 12 month delay will add 10% of the standard Part B premium ($174.70 / month) or $17.47 to your 2024 premium.  
    • Postal retirees and eligible family members who are entitled to Part A prior to Jan. 1, 2024, and have not enrolled in Medicare Part B, may be able to participate in the Special Enrollment Period for Medicare Part B that starts on April 1, 2024 and will last for six months. This will allow eligible retirees to enroll without a late enrollment penalty.  
  • This open season, be sure to learn about the additional prescription drug benefits that many FEHB plans will be including in 2024 for those with Medicare A and/or B enrollment. New for the 2024 plan year is an opportunity for eligible enrollees to receive additional savings and enhanced benefits through a Prescription Drug Plan Employer Group Waiver Plan) offered by 10 FEHB plans. This is in addition to the 28 FEHB plans offering a Medicare Advantage Prescription Drug Plan (MA-PD) EGWP in 2024. This change is projected to reduce total FEHB costs by approximately 2.8%, resulting in a more moderate overall rate increase when compared to similarly sized employer groups. If you need expensive medications, this new plan can save you money and limit your out of pocket expenses for prescriptions. The downside is that if you are in a higher income bracket, you will pay a surcharge for this coverage under the Income Related Medicare Adjustment Amount for Part D. If your modified adjusted gross income in 2022 was over $103,000 (single taxpayer) or $206,000 (if you file a joint tax return), then you may be affected by IRMAA.  

Federal Employees Dental and Vision Insurance Program

After you have selected your FEHB coverage for 2024, check to see if your health plan provides dental or vision care benefits.  If not, of if you need more coverage, select one of the national/international dental plans:

  • Aetna Dental
  • Blue Cross Blue Shield Dental
  • Delta Dental's Federal Employees Dental
  • Program
  • GEHA Connection Dental Federal
  • The MetLife Federal Dental Plan
  • United Concordia Dental
  • UnitedHealthcare Dental Plan

Or, if you are eligible, one of the regional plans:

  • Dominion National
  • EmblemHealth Dental
  • Health Partners Dental Plan
  • Humana Dental
  • Triple-S Salud

For vision care, you have the following plans to choose from through FEDVIP in 2024:

  • Aetna Vision Preferred
  • Blue Cross Blue Shield Vision
  • The MetLife Federal Vision Plan
  • UnitedHealthcare Vision Plan
  • VSP Vision Care

According to OPM, FEDVIP provides dental and vision benefits to a total of over 7.5 million federal employees, uniformed service members, annuitants, and their family members. It provides comprehensive dental and vision insurance at competitive group rates with leading dental and vision Carriers. FEDVIP enrollees give the program high marks for quality and value. You can choose from standard and high option coverage in most plans with some providing both in-network as well as out-of-network coverage.  Learn more at www.benefeds.com.

Federal Flexible Spending Account Program

Employees should also consider the amount of money to set aside in the tax-free flexible spending account programs offered through the Federal Employees Dental and Vision Insurance Program. Visit the www.fsafeds.com website for all of the eligible expenses where you can spend your allocated funds. It is not too late to use your funds that you have contributed in 2023. Check out the options for healthcare, dependent care and for those with a high deductible health plan who use a Health Savings Account), you can contribute to a limited expense FSA for out-of-pocket dental and vision expenses.  

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[TSPStrategy] Survivor Benefit confusion: part two

[TSPStrategy] Survivor Benefit confusion: part two

https://www.govexec.com/pay-benefits/2023/10/survivor-benefit-confusion-part-two/391086/

Survivor Benefit confusion: part two

What about insurance instead of a survivor benefit election?

If you think about it, the survivor benefit election under the "Annuity Election" section of the FERS (or CSRS) retirement application is a form of insurance. You are "paying a premium" that is equal to 10% of your retirement while you need this coverage to protect your spouse against the loss of your FERS (or CSRS) retirement benefit if you die first.  If your spouse predeceases you, then the premium can be canceled, and your retirement can be restored to unreduced value. The benefits of the spousal survivor benefit election include the following features that should not be underestimated:

  1. A survivor benefit election is a permanent election and cannot be changed if more than 18 months have passed from the beginning date of your annuity.  This provides protection to your spouse that no matter what happens, if you die first, they are entitled to a portion of your retirement for the rest of their life in addition to continuation of FEHB insurance. The only exception is if your marriage ends through divorce.  At the time the divorce is final, the election made at retirement is void. To continue this benefit for a former spouse, it must be included in a court order.  
  2. Your spouse cannot outlive or outspend this benefit. They will receive a monthly benefit for the rest of their life if you die first. With life insurance proceeds, your spouse will need to manage a large lump sum in a way that will produce income to support them for the rest of their life, regardless of whether they outlive you by two months, two years, or 22 years.
  3. A survivor benefit receives cost-of-living adjustments before and after your death.  
  4. For a surviving spouse to maintain FEHB insurance coverage, a full or partial survivor annuity must be payable unless the surviving spouse has entitlement to FEHB through their own Federal employment or retirement.  

Here's a recent email that I received:

I will be retiring in the next 6-12 months as a federal law enforcement officer and have been trying to determine whether to opt for the full survivor annuity or a reduced annuity with an increased FEGLI (Federal Employees Group Life Insurance) benefit component. Below are some generalized numbers that are a pretty fair representation of my circumstances and a brief explanation of what I see as some benefits of the higher FEGLI component. 

  • Age at retirement 50
  • Salary at retirement $175,000
  • Calculated retirement annuity $70,000
  • FERS Special Retirement Supplement $20,000
  • Current FEGLI- Basic, Option B 5x

I understand there are several other factors that go into retirement planning, but I am just trying to compare these to one another. My thoughts are that my wife would be better served by a tax-free life insurance payout in the high six-figures than an additional $17,500 in taxable annuity payments. If I elect the 75% reduction (at age 65) to my basic insurance and keep 5 multiples until 65 and then have 3 multiples fully reduced, I will have significant life insurance until age 65, my coverage will remain substantial until reductions are complete around age 70 and then still have around $400,000 in coverage afterward. If I live past 80, the cost of the insurance would become significant, but I still think this could be a better plan than paying the extra $3,500 for a full survivor annuity. I have searched for an article or resource that compares the options but haven't found it. 

Let's put some numbers on the FEGLI elections that are mentioned in the email:

Basic FEGLI is valued on your basic pay rounded up to the next $1,000 plus $2,000. In this example, the basic pay at retirement is $175,000, so the Basic FEGLI would be worth $177,000. At retirement, to continue Basic FEGLI, you can elect from the following three options:

  • 75% reduction at a cost of $.3467/ $1,000/month until the later of retirement or age 65, then no further premium. One month after age 65 (or retirement, if later), coverage begins reducing by 2% per month until coverage reduces by 75%.  
    • $177,000 would cost $61.40/month to age 65, then no further premium.  Coverage remaining would be $44,250.  
  • 50% reduction at a cost of $1.0967/$1,000/month until the later of retirement or age 65, then $.75/$1,000 based on original coverage, with coverage reducing by 1%/month until coverage reduces by 50%.
    • $177,000 would cost $194.10/month until age 65 and then $132.80/month with coverage reduced by one%/month to $88,500 starting at age 65.
  • No Reduction at a cost of $2.5967/$1,000/month until the later of retirement or age 65, then $2.25 / $1,000 / month with coverage not reducing. 
    • $177,000 would cost $459.60/month until age 65 and then $398.30/month thereafter. 

Option B premiums in retirement:

  • 50 – 54:  $.2167/$1,000/month
    • Each multiple of $175,000 would cost $37.92/month
    • Five multiples would cost $189.60/month
  • 55 – 59:  $.3900/$1,000 / month
    • Each multiple of $175,000 would cost $68.25/month
    • Five multiples would cost $341.30/month
  • 60 – 64:  $.8670/$1,000/month
    • Each multiple of $175,000 would cost $151.72/month
    • Five multiples would cost $758.60/month
  • 65 – 69:  $1.040/$1,000/month
    • Each multiple of $175,000 would cost $182.00/month
    • Continuing only two multiples would cost $364.00/month
  • 70 – 74:  $1.8630/$1,000/month
    • Each multiple of $175,000 would cost $326.00/month
    • Continuing only two multiples would cost $652.10/month
  • 75 – 79:  $3.9000/$1,000/month
    • Each multiple of $175,000 would cost $682.50/month
    • Continuing only two multiples would cost $1,365.00/month
  • 80+:  $6.2400/$1,000/month
    • Each multiple of $175,000 would cost $1,092.00/month
    • Continuing only two multiples would cost $2,184.00/month

The value of FEGLI using the 75% reduction election for Basic FEGLI and continuing only two multiples of Option B after age 65 once all the reductions have completed would be $394,250. Prior to age 65, the original coverage has a value of $1,052,000 based on Basic FEGLI ($177,000) plus five multiples of Option B each worth $175,000 ($875,000). Based on the planned election at retirement, at age 65, 

  • Basic FEGLI will begin to reduce by two% $1,000/month starting at age 65 until it reduces by 75% ($177,000 reduces to $44,250) and 
  • Three multiples of option B ($525,000) start to reduce by two%/month until they reach $0 value and 
  • Two multiples of Option B ($350,000) would continue at the above rates that would begin at $364/month at 65; $652.05/month at 70; $1,365/month at 75 and continue at a rate of $2,184/month at 80).

In addition, the FERS annuity benefit of $70,000/year or $5,833.30/month would be reduced by five% ($3,500 / year or $291.70/month) to provide a survivor benefit equal to 25% of his unreduced FERS retirement benefit to his surviving spouse. This would reduce his retirement to $66,500/year or $5,541.70/month.  

In 25 years, assuming an annual cost-of-living adjustment of three%/year, the unreduced value of his FERS retirement could increase to $144,200. The 25% survivor benefit would provide his surviving spouse $36,050/year or $3,004/month income for life with continued COLAs. Presumably, she would also receive a Social Security widow's benefit if it were higher than her own earned Social Security benefit as well as the proceeds of her husband's TSP account.   

Important: The survivor benefit reduction reduces taxable income in retirement, but the premiums for FEGLI are paid with after tax dollars. In the above example, the $291.70/month reduction to provide a partial FERS survivor annuity could save $64/month in federal taxes if it were taxed at the 22% tax rate in addition to saving state income tax on this reduction, if applicable.

If he elects the maximum FERS survivor benefit, then his $70,000/year or $5,833.30/month FERS retirement would be reduced by $7,000/year or $583.30/month (also reducing his taxable retirement income by this amount) leaving him a reduced benefit of $63,000/year or $5,250/month.  

Once he reaches age 65, if he elected the full reduction of his Option B coverage for all five multiples and the 75% reduction for Basic FEGLI, he would have $44,250 remaining FEGLI after the reduction is completed. However, in 25 years with a three percent COLA, the FERS survivor benefit would be 50% of $144,200 or $72,100/year or $6,008/month.  

If this retiree dies prior to age 65, in either case, she will receive the full value of FEGLI (the reduction for Basic and Option B doesn't begin until age 65) and the FERS survivor annuity elected at retirement. However, if he lives to age 75 or beyond:

  • Option 1 (partial FERS survivor election with 75% reduction for Basic FEGLI and only two multiples of FEGLI Option B continue with no reduction)
    • Final value of $394,250 Basic and Option B FEGLI coverage with continued escalating premiums for Option B, plus
    • Estimated reduced FERS survivor annuity of $36,500/year. 
  • Option 2 (maximum FERS survivor election with 75% reduction for Basic FEGLI and Full Reduction of all multiples of Option B)
    • Final value of $44,250 Basic FEGLI remaining, plus
    • Estimated maximum FERS survivor annuity of $72,100/year.  

I am not a financial advisor, and we don't know the "rest of the story" as far as their monthly living expenses, other assets, additional income from investments, inheritance, or other sources of income, so it is not possible in this column to come to any accurate conclusion other than based on both the retiree and the spouse's view, it appears that the maximum survivor election provides a more generous and protected outcome for less overall cost than the reduced survivor benefit election with the option to maintain more life insurance.

From the retiree's perspective:  

  • Would you rather have a 10% reduction to your FERS retirement so that around age 75, the reduction may be approximately $1,201.70/month (also reducing your taxable income by the same amount resulting in a net cost more like $900/month), or
  • Would you rather have a five% reduction to your FERS retirement so that around age 75, the reduction may be approximately $600/month (resulting in a net cost of around $450/month) plus a monthly "after-tax" premium of $1,365 for the two remaining multiples of FEGLI Option B for a total cost of $1,815/month?

From the spouse's perspective:

  • Would you rather lose $144,200 in FERS retirement when your spouse dies which will be replaced by a one-time tax-free payment of $394,250, plus a lifetime annuity of $36,500/year, or
  • Would you rather receive a one-time tax-free payment of $44,250 plus a lifetime annuity of $72,000/year.  
    • Consider that to create $36,500 annual income from $394,250 would require withdrawals of around nine% of the principal.  
    • Consider what happens at age 85 (or sooner) if you have run out of money.  
    • If times get tough while you are both living, the cost of maintaining the $394,250 could be reduced to $0 by canceling the coverage.  
    • Spousal consent is not required to cancel FEGLI – or to change the beneficiary.  
    • The survivor benefit election cannot be reduced or canceled unless the marriage ends through death or divorce.

Final thoughts:

  • Longevity is a financial risk if one spouse outlives the other by decades instead of months or years.
    • Although age differences and health conditions are factors, they are not guarantees that the older spouse in poor health will die first.
  • The long-term cost and value of the spousal survivor annuity should be considered prior to choosing an alternative option such as life insurance.  
    • Inflation can be offset by cost-of-living adjustments that are applied to benefits such as CSRS/FERS retirement and Social Security.  Can the same be said for the alternative options?
    • Lifetime streams of income can provide protection against the risk of longevity.
  • Consider the income you have from all sources (FERS/CSRS retirement benefit, Social Security, Thrift Savings Plan, etc.)  while you are both living and then try to compute the value of the income payable to the surviving spouse when one spouse predeceases the other.
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[TSPStrategy] COLA adjustments will slim for federal retirees in 2024

[TSPStrategy] COLA adjustments will slim for federal retirees in 2024

https://www.govexec.com/pay-benefits/2023/10/federal-retirees-will-see-smaller-cost-living-adjustment-2024/391149/

COLA adjustments will slim for federal retirees in 2024

The annual announcement that some retired federal workers will receive a 3.2% increase in their annuity payments, while others will get only a 2.2% boost, has revived calls to standardize annual adjustments across retirement systems.

After two consecutive years of record increases, the annual cost-of-living adjustment for federal retirees will start to come back to earth in 2024, as federal employee groups revive their effort to end the two-tiered system for calculating the annual annuity increase.

The Social Security Administration on Thursday announced that Social Security beneficiaries will receive a 3.2% cost-of-living adjustment in January, a decrease from the four-decade high 8.7% imposed in 2023 and 5.9% in 2022, albeit still higher than most years in recent memory. SSA calculates the annual increase in annuities based on the annual change in the third quarter consumer price index for workers.

Federal retirees enrolled in the Civil Service Retirement System also will receive a 3.2% annuity increase, but former feds who are part of the newer Federal Employees Retirement System, which came into being in the 1980s along with the 401(k)-style Thrift Savings Plan, will receive only a 2.2% cost-of-living adjustment.

That's because FERS' annual increases are calculated based on an extrapolation of the Social Security and CSRS adjustment. Each year, if CSRS sees an increase of under 2%, FERS retirees receive the full COLA, while if the adjustment is between 2% and 3%, FERS enrollees only receive a 2% increase. And if the CSRS COLA is 3% or more, FERS retirees receive the Social Security and CSRS adjustment, minus 1 percentage point.

As was the case for the last two years, the announcement of a full 1 percentage point split between CSRS and FERS cost-of-living adjustments for 2024 has revived calls among employee organizations for Congress to pass the Equal COLA Act, legislation most recently introduced last February, to ensure retirees in both systems receive the same annuity increase each year.

"While NARFE celebrates the COLA announcement, not all in the federal community will reap its full benefits," said National Active and Retired Federal Employees Association President William Shackleford. "FERS COLAs are capped at 2% when consumer prices increase between 2% and 3%, and are reduced by 1 percentage point when consumer prices increase by 3% or more. This inequitable policy, enacted in the 1980s with the creation of FERS, fails to fully protect the earned value of FERS annuities."

When FERS was developed in the 1980s alongside the Thrift Savings Plan, lawmakers saw the lower COLA as a way to compensate for the fact that CSRS enrollees don't have access to the 401(k)-style retirement savings plan. But in a blog post on its website, the American Federation of Government Employees, the largest labor union in the federal government, argued that the reduced annuity increases have real consequences for retirees, particularly during periods of high inflation.

"The difference for an average retiree is $18.37 a month, but over time, this could set FERS employees back thousands or even tens of thousands in retirement benefits, especially if we have a lot of high-inflation years," the union wrote. "Already, someone who retired under FERS two years ago with an average benefit would have seen their pension fall $440 behind what their yearly benefit should be if it kept up with inflation."


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