Leaders Workshop: May 2022

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

Well said Richard. The S fund is loaded with good innovative companies like Uber, Zoom, and Snap that will eventually bounce back. For now the macro head winds are very tough and I guess their valuations just rose too fast after the last QE. Like you said, it may take a year or two. Thanks

John
> On May 20, 2022, at 3:40 PM, Tsp novice <red12blue@hotmail.com> wrote:
>

--
John

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
Groups.io Links: You receive all messages sent to this group.
View/Reply Online (#3355): https://groups.io/g/TSPStrategy/message/3355
Mute This Topic: https://groups.io/mt/89951866/5159521
Group Owner: TSPStrategy+owner@groups.io
Unsubscribe: https://groups.io/g/TSPStrategy/leave/9090814/5159521/878018705/xyzzy [prefander.leadersworkshop@blogger.com]
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

I faintly recall this group having 3000 or 5000 members when we were on yahoo.

_._,_._,_

Groups.io Links:

You receive all messages sent to this group.

_._,_._,_

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

Yea I just can't log in anymore but I get the emails.

Sent from the all new AOL app for iOS

On Friday, May 20, 2022, 7:41 AM, Dave in Dallas <datruedave+GroupsIO@gmail.com> wrote:

On Fri, May 20, 2022 at 05:49 AM, MD2018 wrote:

I've been a member for years and I thought I had successfully transitioned to groups.io. At least I know I had been able to post messages from the internet site. However over a year ago I was not able to log in to the group from the internet. The main page on groups.io shows that I need to apply for membership?
You may have it set up to send you individual emails, but you're doing it through groups.io right now. Not sure if there's a way to do it without membership, but I would think you do have groups.io membership.

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

On Fri, May 20, 2022 at 05:49 AM, MD2018 wrote:

I’ve been a member for years and I thought I had successfully transitioned to groups.io. At least I know I had been able to post messages from the internet site. However over a year ago I was not able to log in to the group from the internet. The main page on groups.io shows that I need to apply for membership?

You may have it set up to send you individual emails, but you're doing it through groups.io right now. Not sure if there's a way to do it without membership, but I would think you do have groups.io membership.

_._,_._,_

Groups.io Links:

You receive all messages sent to this group.

_._,_._,_

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

I've been a member for years and I thought I had successfully transitioned to groups.io. At least I know I had been able to post messages from the internet site. However over a year ago I was not able to log in to the group from the internet. The main page on groups.io shows that I need to apply for membership?

Richard

On May 19, 2022, at 7:57 PM, Jim Budinger <jmbud2@gmail.com> wrote:

Question for any of the most recent members of this group - Did you have to request membership from the moderator before being granted access?

That's what Sarah did years ago when she was the Yahoo group moderator. If so, that might give us an idea of how recently she was moderating the group.

The current TSP Strategy group hosted on Groups.io has 1,291 members and restricted access.

On Thu, May 19, 2022, 5:04 PM MD2018 via groups.io <rlkane.wc=verizon.net@groups.io> wrote:
I fell for that Nov call as well. In hind sight it was a bad call but at the time it did seem a reasonable call. Almost all seasonal investment strategies show November and December as positive months. Actually C-Fund hit an all-time high in Dec. And there was a short Santa Clause rally. Probably the bad call was to not exit in January. I too staid in (usually I step back in January) too long and then the bottom fell out so fast most everyone was caught.

If you are long term we have seen in all of these corrections that they eventually bounce back and recover but it might be a year or two. Political policies change, elections matter, hopefully they get inflation under control

If you can't stomach the fall (and the worse may be yet to come, as we still have summer to go, October is a month for financial disasters, etc), then you can try to sell the short rallies, buy the dip, and so forth until you can get some breathing room. But that's hard to do.

Richard

On May 19, 2022, at 2:00 PM, JOHN HOLLIS via groups.io <John.hollis_oo4=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

So I've only been in this group less than two years and was intrigued by the many longtime members who swore by Sarah's great market insight and solid TSP track record over the years. Recently someone here stated that they really missed the in-depth analysis she shared that was the basis for whatever fund calls she ever made. Again, being relatively new to this group I never benefited from those earlier posts of hers, but when she made the call to go to the S fund in November 2021, I saw so many of her longtime followers replying with gratitude. What stunned me was the LACK OF ANALYSIS that came with that last post in Nov. In retrospect, the brief rationale she gave for going to S didn't make any sense at all and certainly didn't constitute in-depth analysis. I'm paraphrasing here but it was something like "there hasn't been a correction all year, so there shouldn't be one for the remainder of the year". Maybe she was banking on a "santa claus rally", but the slow and steady crash started 2 or 3 weeks after she made that call. I too hope Sarah is OK and would like to know what happened to her. Meanwhile I can't help but speculate that, because that November post lacked any sensible analysis, maybe her account was hacked around the same time she fell off the grid. Sounds crazy, I know!

Regards,
John H

On Tuesday, March 22, 2022, 09:31:51 AM EDT, TK Ham <snpperhd@gmail.com> wrote:

So I take by the lack of recent discussion this group is no more?

--
John

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

Question for any of the most recent members of this group - Did you have to request membership from the moderator before being granted access?

That's what Sarah did years ago when she was the Yahoo group moderator. If so, that might give us an idea of how recently she was moderating the group.

The current TSP Strategy group hosted on Groups.io has 1,291 members and restricted access.

On Thu, May 19, 2022, 5:04 PM MD2018 via groups.io <rlkane.wc=verizon.net@groups.io> wrote:

I fell for that Nov call as well. In hind sight it was a bad call but at the time it did seem a reasonable call. Almost all seasonal investment strategies show November and December as positive months. Actually C-Fund hit an all-time high in Dec. And there was a short Santa Clause rally. Probably the bad call was to not exit in January. I too staid in (usually I step back in January) too long and then the bottom fell out so fast most everyone was caught.

If you are long term we have seen in all of these corrections that they eventually bounce back and recover but it might be a year or two. Political policies change, elections matter, hopefully they get inflation under control

If you can't stomach the fall (and the worse may be yet to come, as we still have summer to go, October is a month for financial disasters, etc), then you can try to sell the short rallies, buy the dip, and so forth until you can get some breathing room. But that's hard to do.

Richard

On May 19, 2022, at 2:00 PM, JOHN HOLLIS via groups.io <John.hollis_oo4=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

So I've only been in this group less than two years and was intrigued by the many longtime members who swore by Sarah's great market insight and solid TSP track record over the years. Recently someone here stated that they really missed the in-depth analysis she shared that was the basis for whatever fund calls she ever made. Again, being relatively new to this group I never benefited from those earlier posts of hers, but when she made the call to go to the S fund in November 2021, I saw so many of her longtime followers replying with gratitude. What stunned me was the LACK OF ANALYSIS that came with that last post in Nov. In retrospect, the brief rationale she gave for going to S didn't make any sense at all and certainly didn't constitute in-depth analysis. I'm paraphrasing here but it was something like "there hasn't been a correction all year, so there shouldn't be one for the remainder of the year". Maybe she was banking on a "santa claus rally", but the slow and steady crash started 2 or 3 weeks after she made that call. I too hope Sarah is OK and would like to know what happened to her. Meanwhile I can't help but speculate that, because that November post lacked any sensible analysis, maybe her account was hacked around the same time she fell off the grid. Sounds crazy, I know!

Regards,
John H

On Tuesday, March 22, 2022, 09:31:51 AM EDT, TK Ham <snpperhd@gmail.com> wrote:

So I take by the lack of recent discussion this group is no more?

--
John

_._,_._,_

Groups.io Links:

You receive all messages sent to this group.

_._,_._,_

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

I fell for that Nov call as well. In hind sight it was a bad call but at the time it did seem a reasonable call. Almost all seasonal investment strategies show November and December as positive months. Actually C-Fund hit an all-time high in Dec. And there was a short Santa Clause rally. Probably the bad call was to not exit in January. I too staid in (usually I step back in January) too long and then the bottom fell out so fast most everyone was caught.

If you are long term we have seen in all of these corrections that they eventually bounce back and recover but it might be a year or two. Political policies change, elections matter, hopefully they get inflation under control

If you can't stomach the fall (and the worse may be yet to come, as we still have summer to go, October is a month for financial disasters, etc), then you can try to sell the short rallies, buy the dip, and so forth until you can get some breathing room. But that's hard to do.

Richard

On May 19, 2022, at 2:00 PM, JOHN HOLLIS via groups.io <John.hollis_oo4=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

So I've only been in this group less than two years and was intrigued by the many longtime members who swore by Sarah's great market insight and solid TSP track record over the years. Recently someone here stated that they really missed the in-depth analysis she shared that was the basis for whatever fund calls she ever made. Again, being relatively new to this group I never benefited from those earlier posts of hers, but when she made the call to go to the S fund in November 2021, I saw so many of her longtime followers replying with gratitude. What stunned me was the LACK OF ANALYSIS that came with that last post in Nov. In retrospect, the brief rationale she gave for going to S didn't make any sense at all and certainly didn't constitute in-depth analysis. I'm paraphrasing here but it was something like "there hasn't been a correction all year, so there shouldn't be one for the remainder of the year". Maybe she was banking on a "santa claus rally", but the slow and steady crash started 2 or 3 weeks after she made that call. I too hope Sarah is OK and would like to know what happened to her. Meanwhile I can't help but speculate that, because that November post lacked any sensible analysis, maybe her account was hacked around the same time she fell off the grid. Sounds crazy, I know!

Regards,
John H

On Tuesday, March 22, 2022, 09:31:51 AM EDT, TK Ham <snpperhd@gmail.com> wrote:

So I take by the lack of recent discussion this group is no more?

--
John

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

So I've only been in this group less than two years and was intrigued by the many longtime members who swore by Sarah's great market insight and solid TSP track record over the years. Recently someone here stated that they really missed the in-depth analysis she shared that was the basis for whatever fund calls she ever made. Again, being relatively new to this group I never benefited from those earlier posts of hers, but when she made the call to go to the S fund in November 2021, I saw so many of her longtime followers replying with gratitude. What stunned me was the LACK OF ANALYSIS that came with that last post in Nov. In retrospect, the brief rationale she gave for going to S didn't make any sense at all and certainly didn't constitute in-depth analysis. I'm paraphrasing here but it was something like "there hasn't been a correction all year, so there shouldn't be one for the remainder of the year". Maybe she was banking on a "santa claus rally", but the slow and steady crash started 2 or 3 weeks after she made that call. I too hope Sarah is OK and would like to know what happened to her. Meanwhile I can't help but speculate that, because that November post lacked any sensible analysis, maybe her account was hacked around the same time she fell off the grid. Sounds crazy, I know!

Regards,

John H

On Tuesday, March 22, 2022, 09:31:51 AM EDT, TK Ham <snpperhd@gmail.com> wrote:

So I take by the lack of recent discussion this group is no more?

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

That sounds like something she maybe would want to share, not sure, I certainly hope she and her family are well.

_._,_._,_

Groups.io Links:

You receive all messages sent to this group.

_._,_._,_

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

LOL, maybe she became a TSP millionaire. (she certainly was on point in the early years). And retired to Bora Bora.

On Thursday, May 19, 2022, 12:47:30 PM EDT, bradley williams <bradley.m.williams2@gmail.com> wrote:

Since I am assuming no one knows 'Sarah' personally. A logical explanation would be a tragedy, which is unfortunate to think of.

On Thu, May 19, 2022 at 10:40 AM Tsp novice <red12blue@hotmail.com> wrote:

Ok that's something I agree with except why totally abandon your baby(this forum). I would at least farewell and bow out. Something isn't right and we'll never know.

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

Since I am assuming no one knows 'Sarah' personally. A logical explanation would be a tragedy, which is unfortunate to think of.

On Thu, May 19, 2022 at 10:40 AM Tsp novice <red12blue@hotmail.com> wrote:

Ok that's something I agree with except why totally abandon your baby(this forum). I would at least farewell and bow out. Something isn't right and we'll never know.

_._,_._,_

Groups.io Links:

You receive all messages sent to this group.

_._,_._,_

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

Ok that's something I agree with except why totally abandon your baby(this forum). I would at least farewell and bow out. Something isn't right and we'll never know.

_._,_._,_

Groups.io Links:

You receive all messages sent to this group.

_._,_._,_

[TSPStrategy] TSP Millionaires?

I have seen from time to time articles touting the Number of Millionaires in the TSP. I wonder now with the downturn - how many TSP Millionaires have fallen out of the club?

_._,_._,_

Groups.io Links:

You receive all messages sent to this group.

_._,_._,_

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

Great perspective. I certainly wouldn’t want that responsibility — don’t blame her a bit if that’s her perspective. I’ll view this group in this light from now on. Thanks for sharing.

_._,_._,_

Groups.io Links:

You receive all messages sent to this group.

_._,_._,_

Re: [TSPStrategy] Where is sarah_oz

I think Texas should take the helm. He has some good insight.

Carlos Miranda

Mirandarts@gmail.com

On May 11, 2022, at 10:44 AM, tranquang via groups.io <tranquang=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

Isn't her silent for so long enough as her acknowledgement that she is no longer monitor this group?

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

Over the past few years it seemed to me that Sarah was hoping to transition "TSP Strategy" to a self-managed group.

As much as she eschewed market timing, I wonder if it bothered her that many in the group waited anxiously to copy her exact moves at the exact same time, and be willing to do so even with little or no supporting rationale.

I wonder if Sarah's early strategy of making multiple moves per year, often with some supporting commentary might have led some to rely on her personal opinion more than she wanted for the group.

Rather than wait with bated breath for news of her next pending move, I saw her encouraged others to do their own reseach and share their findings and recommendations. Over time a few in the group have stepped up to do just that. Much appreciated of course.

Recall that Sarah's early public TSP strategy gradually morphed from several moves per year to one move or less per year most recently. And then only 100% S or 100% G, and never any mix of funds. She pointed out at least once that the problem with exiting 100% equities on a specific date became deciding exactly when to reenter the maket.

Well, trying to time to market with 100% moves becomes increasingly risky the more your TSP balance grows.

Based on historical performance, I truly believe Sarah thought 100% S was probably the best life long term TSP strategic position for her and just about everyone. Especially for those who don't want to do their own research from multiple independent sources, or pay for any fiduciary advice on such an important investment as the TSP is many of us.

Holding only one fund at a time and making 100% moves was never a strategy that I was comfortable with, other than 100% G in times like this.

Last week I sent an email to Sarah at the the address she used back when she started TSP Strategy Yahoo Group. Just wanted to hear if she is okay and wish her well. The email didn't bounce, but I've received no response yet either.

So, thanks to Sarah for doing all she did to get this group up and running years ago while asking very little in return. Perhaps her personal strategic transition for this group is complete.

_._,_._,_

Groups.io Links:

You receive all messages sent to this group.

_._,_._,_

Re: [TSPStrategy] Where is sarah_oz

Isn't her silent for so long enough as her acknowledgement that she is no longer monitor this group?

_._,_._,_

Groups.io Links:

You receive all messages sent to this group.

_._,_._,_

Re: [TSPStrategy] Where is sarah_oz

To anyone who has problems on this forum, I do recommend going to https://www.facebook.com/groups/thriftsavingsplan. Their strategy is pretty much stay in C and S though they shift percentages depending on what's happening. They do charts, graphs, memes to demonstrate all of their points.

But they respond to all questions, often very quickly, are very knowledgeable, provide info updates on TSP issues like the new login, provide links to relevant articles, youtube videos and most importantly forms and rules for Feds. And other members chime in on specialty questions so you always get an answer and an explanation.

if one doesn't like this forum, instead of constantly complaining I highly recommend the FB group.

Steven

Virus-free. www.avg.com

On Wed, May 11, 2022 at 10:09 AM Jewels and Rusty <rujusaka@gmail.com> wrote:

So now we have at least 3 requests for her to acknowledge her presence and still nothing. The last time we heard from her was 11/21/2021 — very close to 6 months ago.

_._,_._,_

Groups.io Links:

You receive all messages sent to this group.

_._,_._,_

[TSPStrategy] Where is sarah_oz

So now we have at least 3 requests for her to acknowledge her presence and still nothing. The last time we heard from her was 11/21/2021 — very close to 6 months ago.

_._,_._,_

Groups.io Links:

You receive all messages sent to this group.

_._,_._,_

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

Thanks for the comprehensive list of TSP advisory services.
I found the Grow My TSP site's walkthrough and discussion of the charts informative and helpful.
https://vimeo.com/707375408/8124467d79

-- Gus

_._,_._,_

Groups.io Links:

You receive all messages sent to this group.

_._,_._,_

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

I hope Sarah is well also. My gut feeling is that she is OK but perhaps had some life events that distracted her from this site, and/or she lost interest in maintaining it. If the latter is true, it would have been nice if she acknowledged that she was not going to be participating at the level she did a few years ago.

_._,_._,_

Groups.io Links:

You receive all messages sent to this group.

_._,_._,_

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

Hind sight is 20/20. She also provided quite a few tools for analysis and comparison. I for one very appreciative for her "advice". Hope she is well.

Stan Kays

srkays@gmail.com

On May 9, 2022, at 13:00, Ken Johnston via groups.io <KJohns4456=aol.com@groups.io> wrote:

went to G in January 2021 so 0 for 2, not many willing to predict when to enter or exit so at least she had some good calls in the past.

-----Original Message-----
From: Kurt Peterson <kurtphyre@gmail.com>
To: TSPStrategy@groups.io
Sent: Mon, May 9, 2022 1:56 pm
Subject: Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

Her advice since I've been a member of this group, for a few years now, has been pure garbage.

On Mon, 9 May 2022, 18:36 Del Brett, <bretdelman@msn.com> wrote:

Not really a bad call long term, thats almost guaranteed, its her group if she is around but who knows with the covid problem. S fund is up big time over the last 10 years!

From: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io> on behalf of Carlos Miranda <mirandarts@gmail.com>
Sent: Monday, May 9, 2022 12:24 PM
To: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io>
Subject: Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

I probably would have closed my account after that recommendation too. I'm sure she's fine She just knows that was a horrible call.

Carlos Miranda
Mirandarts@gmail.com

On May 9, 2022, at 1:18 PM, Jewels and Rusty <rujusaka@gmail.com> wrote:

I specifically requested that Sarah pipe in just to let us know she was ok and still with us. There was no response. I unfortunately think something has happened to her. It's a good discussion group now but I wouldn't rely on the 100% S recommendation.

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

Kurt Peterson, you are one of the few brave enough to tell it like it is.
https://www.tspgurus.com/

_._,_._,_

Groups.io Links:

You receive all messages sent to this group.

_._,_._,_

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

went to G in January 2021 so 0 for 2, not many willing to predict when to enter or exit so at least she had some good calls in the past.

-----Original Message-----
From: Kurt Peterson <kurtphyre@gmail.com>
To: TSPStrategy@groups.io
Sent: Mon, May 9, 2022 1:56 pm
Subject: Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

Her advice since I've been a member of this group, for a few years now, has been pure garbage.

On Mon, 9 May 2022, 18:36 Del Brett, <bretdelman@msn.com> wrote:

Not really a bad call long term, thats almost guaranteed, its her group if she is around but who knows with the covid problem. S fund is up big time over the last 10 years!

From: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io> on behalf of Carlos Miranda <mirandarts@gmail.com>
Sent: Monday, May 9, 2022 12:24 PM
To: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io>
Subject: Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

I probably would have closed my account after that recommendation too. I'm sure she's fine She just knows that was a horrible call.

Carlos Miranda
Mirandarts@gmail.com

On May 9, 2022, at 1:18 PM, Jewels and Rusty <rujusaka@gmail.com> wrote:

I specifically requested that Sarah pipe in just to let us know she was ok and still with us. There was no response. I unfortunately think something has happened to her. It's a good discussion group now but I wouldn't rely on the 100% S recommendation.

_._,_._,_

Groups.io Links:

You receive all messages sent to this group.

_._,_._,_

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

Her advice since I've been a member of this group, for a few years now, has been pure garbage.

On Mon, 9 May 2022, 18:36 Del Brett, <bretdelman@msn.com> wrote:

Not really a bad call long term, thats almost guaranteed, its her group if she is around but who knows with the covid problem. S fund is up big time over the last 10 years!

From: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io> on behalf of Carlos Miranda <mirandarts@gmail.com>
Sent: Monday, May 9, 2022 12:24 PM
To: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io>
Subject: Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

I probably would have closed my account after that recommendation too. I'm sure she's fine She just knows that was a horrible call.

Carlos Miranda
Mirandarts@gmail.com

On May 9, 2022, at 1:18 PM, Jewels and Rusty <rujusaka@gmail.com> wrote:

I specifically requested that Sarah pipe in just to let us know she was ok and still with us. There was no response. I unfortunately think something has happened to her. It's a good discussion group now but I wouldn't rely on the 100% S recommendation.

_._,_._,_

Groups.io Links:

You receive all messages sent to this group.

_._,_._,_

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

Not really a bad call long term, thats almost guaranteed, its her group if she is around but who knows with the covid problem. S fund is up big time over the last 10 years!

From: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io> on behalf of Carlos Miranda <mirandarts@gmail.com>
Sent: Monday, May 9, 2022 12:24 PM
To: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io>
Subject: Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

I probably would have closed my account after that recommendation too. I'm sure she's fine She just knows that was a horrible call.

Carlos Miranda

Mirandarts@gmail.com

On May 9, 2022, at 1:18 PM, Jewels and Rusty <rujusaka@gmail.com> wrote:

I specifically requested that Sarah pipe in just to let us know she was ok and still with us. There was no response. I unfortunately think something has happened to her. It's a good discussion group now but I wouldn't rely on the 100% S recommendation.

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

I probably would have closed my account after that recommendation too. I'm sure she's fine She just knows that was a horrible call.

Carlos Miranda

Mirandarts@gmail.com

On May 9, 2022, at 1:18 PM, Jewels and Rusty <rujusaka@gmail.com> wrote:

I specifically requested that Sarah pipe in just to let us know she was ok and still with us. There was no response. I unfortunately think something has happened to her. It's a good discussion group now but I wouldn't rely on the 100% S recommendation.

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

I specifically requested that Sarah pipe in just to let us know she was ok and still with us. There was no response. I unfortunately think something has happened to her. It’s a good discussion group now but I wouldn’t rely on the 100% S recommendation.

_._,_._,_

Groups.io Links:

You receive all messages sent to this group.

_._,_._,_

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

On Sat, May 7, 2022 at 04:44 PM, Rich Tracy Jr wrote:

I’ve been in G since the move before the Inauguration and didn’t move back to S when the recommendation changed. Obviously, I regretted that until now.

... I too am now looking for close to bottom to jump back in.

I'm in the same boat. Looking for the bottom so I can jump back in.

_._,_._,_

Groups.io Links:

You receive all messages sent to this group.

_._,_._,_

Re: [TSPStrategy] Zweig Model

Thanks for keeping up the Zweig Model. I read the book years ago and remember Zweig's appearances on TV. One simple piece of advise he offered was to avoid the risks of the spring and summer stock market. Most of the gains in stocks occur in the last three months of the year. Buy in October and sell in January.
I continue to recommend his book to new investors, and look forward to your posts on this investing model.

Re: [TSPStrategy] Zweig Model

I don't quite understand or follow the Zweig model, but have both been in and followed the markets since 1981

I remember the "crash" of fall 1983, a tiny tiny blip on the long term graphs.

I'm personally and have been following renewables for the last 30+ years, few good ones few bad ones.

IF you follow renewables, you can see that the world is running out of easy fossil fuels, and people love breathing clean air, drinking clean water, etc.

If you look closer, renewables made up perhaps 01% of the _worlds_ energy in 2001, perhaps ~2% ten years later in 2011 and just crossed 10% in 2021 after after 10 years, for a total of ~2,800 TERAWATT hours, the world using 27,000+ terawatt hours

If you look at growth rates of both wind and solar, the major renewables the rate was astounding

Solar was growing at 54.9% _per_ year from 2011 to 2020, slowing to only 23.5% in 2020

Statistical Review of World Energy | Energy economics | Home

bp's Statistical Review of World Energy 2021 reveals that the COVID-19 pandemic had a dramatic impact on energy ...

If you extrapolate out, by 2035 you get ~30,000 terawatt hours and by 2041 you ger 60,000 terawatt hours,

The upshot is. like it or not, the planet is transitioning from fossil fuels to electricity everywhere, from renewables, mainly wind & solar (free fuel)(my electric bill for my 100% electric house and electric car is $21.69/month) and installing massive megawatt and soon gigawatt battery banks and virtual power plants dotted everywhere, from centralized to decentralized

however, this isn't TSP related, but retirement related,

cheers

On Sunday, May 8, 2022, 05:03:59 PM EDT, Locutusoftexas <mrweyl@hotmail.com> wrote:

FWIW, the Zweig Model is now an outright sell for the first time since at least the financial crisis of 2008-9.

None of the major elements are likely to move from negative to positive this year. A short-term up trend could take it into neutral territory. I am expecting consumer installment debt to cross the threshold to become negative, in which case the Zweig model could achieve the minimum possible reading (0 points) for the first time this century.

Of course, Zweig is dead and traders now gamble on when the major elements will change in a positive or negative direction before the change actually happens. This happened in late 2018, when the time to buy was at the point that the Fed announced that it would not raise the federal funds rate further, instead of the point at which Zweig's negative points expired several months later and before it started cutting rates in August, 2019.

Either way, this is a true milestone. On the other hand, no one knows whether the stock indexes will continue to trend downward or for how long.

I believe that this is just noise for someone who expects to live for another 20 years, even after retirement. Statistically, for such a person, trading is not a winning strategy. Rather, overwhelming odds support "buying and holding stocks (no TSP withdrawals or loans)" as the winning strategy. That is one of the few free lunches.

Maybe there are actual historical exceptions to the advisability of the "twenty-year buy and hold stocks" strategy of which I am unaware, in which case I would stand corrected.

Good luck,
Tex

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

Bingo Brett.

That's a Winning strategy.

On Sun, May 8, 2022 at 10:32 AM Del Brett <bretdelman@msn.com> wrote:

Yes unless you are withdrawing your tsp or selling shares you will not lose money no matter how bad the group is or how you messed up lol. This group has never been one that everyone follows the investment of the group leader. We use to compete with different ideas to see who had the best rate of return every 3 months. I happened to be in stock investments back in 2008 but never lost anything in any investment by not selling shares. I would not and will probably never move to G or F funds even when I start getting deposits each month. I would never move my tsp to other investment companies like some people do. My tsp is between 3 and 4 times what I had in 2006 when I discovered groups online and hope to be a tsp millionaire soon but forgot to say I am in the C fund and not a big fan of the S or I fund.

From: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io> on behalf of Carlos Miranda <mirandarts@gmail.com>
Sent: Saturday, May 7, 2022 11:27 AM
To: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io>
Subject: Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

Yeah 100% S and then silence. Worst group ever.

Carlos Miranda
Mirandarts@gmail.com

On May 7, 2022, at 12:05 PM, Damian Cotto via groups.io <damian.cotto=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

Everything but G has been dropping. I've kept my stuff in G the last 90 days.

Respectfully,

Damian Cotto

On Saturday, May 7, 2022, 11:59, JOHN HOLLIS via groups.io <John.hollis_oo4=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

So was Sarah's last recommendation the one in November to go to S or did she ever send an update? Thanks

Dave

Sent via Gmail from my iPhone

_._,_._,_

Groups.io Links:

You receive all messages sent to this group.

_._,_._,_

Re: [TSPStrategy] Zweig Model

Thanx Tex. Haven't heard from you in a while.

Do you happen to know if Sarah has left the group? She has done a great job providing a forum for advice, comment and experience.

Take care

Stan

Stan Kays

srkays@gmail.com

On May 8, 2022, at 16:04, Locutusoftexas <mrweyl@hotmail.com> wrote:

FWIW, the Zweig Model is now an outright sell for the first time since at least the financial crisis of 2008-9.

None of the major elements are likely to move from negative to positive this year. A short-term up trend could take it into neutral territory. I am expecting consumer installment debt to cross the threshold to become negative, in which case the Zweig model could achieve the minimum possible reading (0 points) for the first time this century.

Of course, Zweig is dead and traders now gamble on when the major elements will change in a positive or negative direction before the change actually happens. This happened in late 2018, when the time to buy was at the point that the Fed announced that it would not raise the federal funds rate further, instead of the point at which Zweig's negative points expired several months later and before it started cutting rates in August, 2019.

Either way, this is a true milestone. On the other hand, no one knows whether the stock indexes will continue to trend downward or for how long.

I believe that this is just noise for someone who expects to live for another 20 years, even after retirement. Statistically, for such a person, trading is not a winning strategy. Rather, overwhelming odds support "buying and holding stocks (no TSP withdrawals or loans)" as the winning strategy. That is one of the few free lunches.

Maybe there are actual historical exceptions to the advisability of the "twenty-year buy and hold stocks" strategy of which I am unaware, in which case I would stand corrected.

Good luck,
Tex

Re: [TSPStrategy] Zweig Model

Tex,

Thank you very much for this information. May I ask, are you still in the C or S fund or did you move to the G fund?

Thank you,

Mary

Sent from Yahoo Mail for iPad

On Sunday, May 8, 2022, 5:04 PM, Locutusoftexas <mrweyl@hotmail.com> wrote:

FWIW, the Zweig Model is now an outright sell for the first time since at least the financial crisis of 2008-9.

None of the major elements are likely to move from negative to positive this year. A short-term up trend could take it into neutral territory. I am expecting consumer installment debt to cross the threshold to become negative, in which case the Zweig model could achieve the minimum possible reading (0 points) for the first time this century.

Of course, Zweig is dead and traders now gamble on when the major elements will change in a positive or negative direction before the change actually happens. This happened in late 2018, when the time to buy was at the point that the Fed announced that it would not raise the federal funds rate further, instead of the point at which Zweig's negative points expired several months later and before it started cutting rates in August, 2019.

Either way, this is a true milestone. On the other hand, no one knows whether the stock indexes will continue to trend downward or for how long.

I believe that this is just noise for someone who expects to live for another 20 years, even after retirement. Statistically, for such a person, trading is not a winning strategy. Rather, overwhelming odds support "buying and holding stocks (no TSP withdrawals or loans)" as the winning strategy. That is one of the few free lunches.

Maybe there are actual historical exceptions to the advisability of the "twenty-year buy and hold stocks" strategy of which I am unaware, in which case I would stand corrected.

Good luck,
Tex

[TSPStrategy] Zweig Model

_._,_._,_

Groups.io Links:

You receive all messages sent to this group.

_._,_._,_

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

I was getting close to becoming a TSP millionaire but that is no longer the case for obvious reasons. I'm still a millionaire (net worth) but that may not be the case if the TSP continues the downward spiral. Worked really hard to being able to retire early (end of 2022) but since early 2021 everything changed.

Thanks,

On Sunday, May 8, 2022, 11:55 AM, MD2018 via groups.io <rlkane.wc=verizon.net@groups.io> wrote:

I was a tsp millionaire until I left my strategy and took the Nov advise and went all in. I don't blame anyone but myself for deviating from my moderate exposure to 100% hoping to catch the Xmas rally. Should have got out Jan 1 and went I was down 10%. Now down over 20%. Just hoping it's not going to be a -40%. I think Nov 2007-March 2009 was a 60% loss in S fund.
As I don't need to take withdrawals for another 10 years I should have time to recover. They have always recovered in the past.

Richard
On Sunday, May 8, 2022, 1:32 PM, Del Brett <bretdelman@msn.com> wrote:

Yes unless you are withdrawing your tsp or selling shares you will not lose money no matter how bad the group is or how you messed up lol. This group has never been one that everyone follows the investment of the group leader. We use to compete with different ideas to see who had the best rate of return every 3 months. I happened to be in stock investments back in 2008 but never lost anything in any investment by not selling shares. I would not and will probably never move to G or F funds even when I start getting deposits each month. I would never move my tsp to other investment companies like some people do. My tsp is between 3 and 4 times what I had in 2006 when I discovered groups online and hope to be a tsp millionaire soon but forgot to say I am in the C fund and not a big fan of the S or I fund.

From: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io> on behalf of Carlos Miranda <mirandarts@gmail.com>
Sent: Saturday, May 7, 2022 11:27 AM
To: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io>
Subject: Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

Yeah 100% S and then silence. Worst group ever.

Carlos Miranda
Mirandarts@gmail.com

On May 7, 2022, at 12:05 PM, Damian Cotto via groups.io <damian.cotto=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

Everything but G has been dropping. I've kept my stuff in G the last 90 days.

Respectfully,

Damian Cotto

On Saturday, May 7, 2022, 11:59, JOHN HOLLIS via groups.io <John.hollis_oo4=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

So was Sarah's last recommendation the one in November to go to S or did she ever send an update? Thanks

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

I was a tsp millionaire until I left my strategy and took the Nov advise and went all in. I don't blame anyone but myself for deviating from my moderate exposure to 100% hoping to catch the Xmas rally. Should have got out Jan 1 and went I was down 10%. Now down over 20%. Just hoping it's not going to be a -40%. I think Nov 2007-March 2009 was a 60% loss in S fund.

As I don't need to take withdrawals for another 10 years I should have time to recover. They have always recovered in the past.

Richard

On Sunday, May 8, 2022, 1:32 PM, Del Brett <bretdelman@msn.com> wrote:

Yes unless you are withdrawing your tsp or selling shares you will not lose money no matter how bad the group is or how you messed up lol. This group has never been one that everyone follows the investment of the group leader. We use to compete with different ideas to see who had the best rate of return every 3 months. I happened to be in stock investments back in 2008 but never lost anything in any investment by not selling shares. I would not and will probably never move to G or F funds even when I start getting deposits each month. I would never move my tsp to other investment companies like some people do. My tsp is between 3 and 4 times what I had in 2006 when I discovered groups online and hope to be a tsp millionaire soon but forgot to say I am in the C fund and not a big fan of the S or I fund.

From: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io> on behalf of Carlos Miranda <mirandarts@gmail.com>
Sent: Saturday, May 7, 2022 11:27 AM
To: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io>
Subject: Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

Yeah 100% S and then silence. Worst group ever.

Carlos Miranda
Mirandarts@gmail.com

On May 7, 2022, at 12:05 PM, Damian Cotto via groups.io <damian.cotto=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

Everything but G has been dropping. I've kept my stuff in G the last 90 days.

Respectfully,

Damian Cotto

On Saturday, May 7, 2022, 11:59, JOHN HOLLIS via groups.io <John.hollis_oo4=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

So was Sarah's last recommendation the one in November to go to S or did she ever send an update? Thanks

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

Yes unless you are withdrawing your tsp or selling shares you will not lose money no matter how bad the group is or how you messed up lol. This group has never been one that everyone follows the investment of the group leader. We use to compete with different ideas to see who had the best rate of return every 3 months. I happened to be in stock investments back in 2008 but never lost anything in any investment by not selling shares. I would not and will probably never move to G or F funds even when I start getting deposits each month. I would never move my tsp to other investment companies like some people do. My tsp is between 3 and 4 times what I had in 2006 when I discovered groups online and hope to be a tsp millionaire soon but forgot to say I am in the C fund and not a big fan of the S or I fund.

From: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io> on behalf of Carlos Miranda <mirandarts@gmail.com>
Sent: Saturday, May 7, 2022 11:27 AM
To: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io>
Subject: Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

Yeah 100% S and then silence. Worst group ever.

Carlos Miranda

Mirandarts@gmail.com

On May 7, 2022, at 12:05 PM, Damian Cotto via groups.io <damian.cotto=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

Everything but G has been dropping. I've kept my stuff in G the last 90 days.

Respectfully,

Damian Cotto

On Saturday, May 7, 2022, 11:59, JOHN HOLLIS via groups.io <John.hollis_oo4=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

So was Sarah's last recommendation the one in November to go to S or did she ever send an update? Thanks

Re: [TSPStrategy] End of the road

Hopefully not much more bleeding. 🤞🏻

Thanks,

On Saturday, May 7, 2022, 5:31 PM, Claus Ullstad <ullstadusn@gmail.com> wrote:

I moved 60% to G this past Jan. Wishing I had moved it all.

But my bet is 30k for Dow. Maybe 31. Not worried about when it reverses, more so how much bleeding it's going to do before.

Very Respectfully,

Claus

All In, All Of The Time!
- In honor of SOCS Tom Valentine

On May 7, 2022, at 18:39, JPass via groups.io <Jpass12=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

I'm 51 and will be eligible in 4 months. I was hoping to retire at that time. From the looks of it, I might stick around a little longer to give it a chance to recover and continue buying cheap. I do feel like retiring as soon as possible but not sure if I should.

Thanks,

JP

On Saturday, May 7, 2022, 3:44 PM, Rich Tracy Jr <kofc8077@comcast.net> wrote:
I've been in G since the move before the Inauguration and didn't move back to S when the recommendation changed. Obviously, I regretted that until now.

I am not overly risk averse, holding S through the dip and rise of COVID. I too am now looking for close to bottom to jump back in.

BTW, I'm retired since 2017, no longer making contributions.

Best to everyone.
Rich

On May 7, 2022 at 14:22, <JPass via groups.io> wrote:

I'm 50/50 C/S. Since early in the year. I'm down around $120k. I'm staying the course. Moving to G at this time would mean you would be realizing the loss. You would also miss the recovery. Remember, this is a long term strategy. There are always turbulent times and you just need to muscle through the jitters and the panic urging you to move to G.

Thanks,

JP

On Saturday, May 7, 2022, 11:26 AM, Damian Cotto via groups.io <damian.cotto=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:
I know I switched from G to C&S for just two weeks and dropped 5k. It made me go right back to G. Lol

Respectfully,

Damian Cotto

On Saturday, May 7, 2022, 13:04, JOHN HOLLIS via groups.io <John.hollis_oo4=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:
I just wish we had an inkling how close or far from bottoming we are. I keep hearing that the 2nd half of the year should be better, but that all depends on inflation being controlled. If the stock market is capitulating then then there may be much more pain ahead.